Data Analysis for the Mile Championship (G1)

Alongside the Yasuda Kinen in the spring, the Grade 1 Mile Championship is a major target for top horses as the pinnacle of the mile racing season. With a winning time in the 1 minute, 32-second range for the last 4 years, this race has consistently produced thrilling finishes, and is now seen as deciding the true champion in this category. What trends can we detect in this autumn contest to decide the "king of milers"? Let's see by analyzing the results from the past 10 years.

Favor the favorites

In terms of the runners' popularity in betting, the race has twice been won by dark horses rated "10th favorite or lower" over the past 10 years, but is usually won by one of the top favorites. Particularly consistent data are found for the "2nd placed horse," which is invariably provided by one of the top four favorites. However, eight of the 10 "3rd placed horses" have been "5th favorite or lower", providing another interesting statistic. [Table 1]

East vs. West

Although this race is held at Kyoto Racecourse in the "Kansai (western)" part of Japan, horses from the "Kanto (eastern)" area perform just as well as those from the "Kansai." In the spring season Yasuda Kinen, "Kanto" horses have had three wins, while "Kansai" has triumphed five times and foreign-trained horses twice. Other statistics, such as win ratio, give "Kansai" a clear edge over the "Kanto" in the Yasuda Kinen. Compared to that, "Kanto" have fared well against their counterparts in the Mile Championship. [Table 2]

In a similar vein, examining the results in terms of "combinations of horse + jockey from different affiliations," the two wins by "Kanto horse + Kansai jockey (affiliated to JRA Ritto Training Center)" were both achieved by the combination of Daiwa Major & rider Katsumi Ando, back-to-back winners in 2006 and 2007. There have also been 2 wins by the reverse combination, "Kansai horse + Kanto jockey (affiliated to JRA Miho Training Center)," with Agnes Digital & Hitoshi Matoba in 2000 and Blumenblatt & Yutaka Yoshida in 2008. However, since there were less Kansai horse & Kanto jockey combinations (9), the later has a win ratio more than twice that of its counterpart. [Table 3]

※ Excluding jockeys affiliated to the National Association of Racing (NAR) and foreign riders on short-term riding jockey licenses

Grade 1 Race vs. Step Race

If we classify results in the Mile Championship in terms of the runners' previous race, the best performances are produced by horses that come directly from the "Tenno Sho (Autumn)" or the "Sprinters Stakes" - both Grade 1 races - as seen in the table below. Also, of eight runners whose previous race was the "Mainichi Okan," four have finished 2nd, making an impressive top 2 ratio of 50.0%. Contrarily, horses that come from the "Fuji Stakes" and "Swan Stakes," known as step races for the Mile Championship, tend to have a worse time of it. In particular, runners previously appearing in the Swan Stakes have produced six 3rd placed horses, but only one finisher in the top two (Super Hornet, 2nd in 2007). It's a bit disconcerting that a total of 44 runners from the Swan Stakes over the past 10 years have failed to produce a single winner. [Table 4]

The final 3 furlongs

This race often springs dramatically to life as the runners approach the finishing post. Last year, in particular, the horses finishing 1st to 16th were separated by a mere 0.8 seconds as they flew past the post. To triumph under these conditions, horses with "explosive acceleration" will have a huge advantage. As an indicator that proves this, horses with experience of winning any of their previous five races with a time of 33.9 secs. or less (estimated) over the final three furlongs have been in the top two places every year since 2003. Bearing in mind that this race is held at Kyoto Racecourse, where the final stretch is flat, it might be interesting to target horses that combine abundant "speed" with "explosive acceleration." [Table 5]

※ If there was more than one race in question, only the most recent one is listed.

(Data Analysis by Yasunori Asano)