The first Fillies Classic of 2012! - Data Analysis for the "Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1)"

Of the last ten Oka Sho winners, only three have started as favorites in win odds betting. This race has seen its fair share of upsets over the years – take 2008, for example, when there was a massive Trifecta payout of 7,002,920 yen. But strongly backed horses have delivered the goods in the three years since 2009; in the dividends by different types of bet, there was only one year when the payout exceeded 10,000 yen (100 times). That was in 2010 when the Trifecta dividend was 38,520 yen. Focusing primarily on recent trends, this race could be seen as a tight one, and that alone makes it uniquely difficult to call. So which horse will take the prize in 2012? Let's analyze some common characteristics of successful runners from results over the last 10 years, taking account of changing trends.

Check the runners' previous race (and finishing position!)

Of 30 horses finishing in the top 3 over the last 10 years, 17 had most recently been seen in one of the trial races ("Tulip Sho, Fillies' Revue, Anemone Stakes"). But runners coming straight from trial races have poorer top 2 and top 3 ratios than those most recently appearing in "Other races". In other words, we ought to keep an eye on horses not coming from trial races as well. [Table 1]

Secondly, of horses beaten to "6th or lower" in their previous race when it was one of "Tulip Sho, Fillies' Revue, Anemone Stakes", only one (2002 winner Arrow Carry; previous race Anemone Stakes, 8th) has had a top 3 finish in the Oka Sho. In that case, we can probably discount runners most recently seen in a trial race when they failed to finish above 6th in that race. [Table 2]

Again, of horses beaten to "2nd or lower" in their previous race when it was among "Other races", only two have had top 3 finishes in the Oka Sho. They were Katamachi Botan, 3rd in 2007 (previous race Queen Stakes, 2nd), and 2008 runner-up F T Maia (previous race Queen Stakes, 6th). When comparing runners most recently competing in races other than trials, we should only be really interested if they won that race. [Table 3]

Strong showing from horses with a good record in 1600m+ open class turf races

Of 30 horses finishing in the top 3 over the last 10 years, 23 had previous experience of winning a JRA graded race or open class stakes race. These horses also have superior success ratios. This year, too, it might be best to check for runners with previous experience of winning an open class stakes race. [Table 4]

However, these horses with experience of wins have not fared so well if they have never won a JRA graded race or open class stakes race run over 1600m or more on turf. Horses in this category have only achieved a top 3 ratio of 3.8%, and only two (2003 winner Still in Love and 2005 winner Rhein Kraft) have had a top 3 finish in the Oka Sho. In other words, even if a horse has previous experience of winning an open class stakes race, it could be out of the reckoning if the race was run over less than 1600m on turf. [Table 5]

Most of the strong performers with long odds are trained at Ritto

In the performance by place of registration (Miho or Ritto Training Center) of horses backed by a win odds multiple of less than 20 (i.e. short odds), it turns out that "Miho-trained horses" have slightly better success ratios than "Ritto-trained horses". When comparing the more strongly favored horses, then, it would be wise to check for Miho-trained horses as well as the more local Ritto-trained horses. [Table 6]

However, when we look at the performance by registration of horses with a win odds multiple of 20 or more (i.e. long odds), seven out of nine top 3 finishers were "Ritto-trained horses". When comparing less strongly favored runners, Ritto-trained horses may be worthier of attention than those trained at Miho. [Table 7]

Katsumi Ando among jockeys with a good track record

Turning now to results based on the horse's rider, six jockeys have experienced a top 3 finish in this race at least twice in the last 10 years: "Katsumi Ando" (5 times), "Kenichi Ikezoe" (3 times), "Masayoshi Ebina" (3 times), "Yutaka Take" (3 times), "Yuichi Fukunaga" (3 times) and "Hirofumi Shii" (4 times). By contrast, "Other jockeys" have had a poor time of it, with a top 2 ratio of 2.3% and a top 3 ratio of 7.0%. As well as Katsumi Ando and his four victories, it may be interesting to check which other jockeys have notched a good record in the Oka Sho. [Table 8]

Inside brackets a poor bet since course refurbishment

In 2007, Hanshin Racecourse was refurbished and the race transferred to the new turf 1600m Outer Course. In terms of the runners' performance by bracket number since then, no horse in "brackets 1-3" has finished in the top 2, and only one has finished 3rd (Katamachi Botan, bracket number 2, horse number 3 in 2007). Runners assigned to inner brackets used to perform relatively poorly even up to 2006, but the course refurbishment at Hanshin seems to have intensified that trend. Runners in "brackets 1-3" may have to be discounted in future as well. [Table 9]

(Data analysis by Masaya Ibuki)