Data Analysis for the "2012 Victoria Mile (G1)"

It’s the Top Filly Decider for the First Half-Year!

Recent winners of the Victoria Mile - Vodka in 2009, Buena Vista in 2010, Apapane in 2011 – have been top-grade horses carrying multiple wins in JRA domestic and international G1 races. But the winner in 2007, the second year this race was held, was 12th favorite Koiuta, producing a massive Trifecta dividend of 2,283,960 yen. The possibility of an upset certainly can’t be ruled out, then. And for that reason, it would be wise to check the runners thoroughly – including those with poor pre-race form. So which of the runners will triumph in this, the biggest race for 4yo+ fillies and mares in the first half of the year? Which of them will challenge for the big summer and autumn races as a leader among her peers? To help answer that, let’s analyze some key points shared by strong performers in this race from results over the last six years.

Check for runners most recently pitted against colts and horses

Five of the six winners over the last six years (the exception being 2008 winner Asian Winds) had most recently run in races “Not limited to fillies and mares”. Runners most recently competing in these races have far higher success ratios than those coming straight from races “Limited to fillies and mares”. In other words, runners pitted against colts and horses (and geldings) in their previous outing seem to have a higher likelihood of success than those that opt for races “Limited to fillies and mares”. [Table 1]

Strong performance when previous race was also 1,600m

Looking at the performance by distance of the previous race, runners most recently seen in races contested over “1,600m” have excellent success ratios, with a top 3 ratio of 37.5%. The 2011 winner Apapane was one of these, previously running in the Yomiuri Milers Cup on the 1,600m turf outer course at Hanshin. So let’s keep a particularly close eye on runners when their previous race was contested over the same distance as this one, i.e. “1,600m”. [Table 2]

Runners with a good finish in the previous race perform well

Of 18 top three finishers over the last six years, 9 had been placed “In the top 2” in their previous outing when it was a JRA flat race. Conversely, runners finishing “3rd or lower” in their previous outing when it was JRA flat race tend to struggle in this one, with a top 3 ratio of only 7.4%. When comparing statistics from the previous outing, we should pin more hope on runners with a strong finish in that race. [Table 3]

Inside brackets have the edge

Viewing the performance by bracket number, runners starting in brackets “1-3” have notched relatively high success ratios, with a top 3 ratio of 27.8%. Brackets “4-8” have also produced some strong performers, but the inside brackets have the edge in this race. [Table 4]

Also, of runners starting in brackets “4-8”, none has finished strongly when passing the 4th corner “among the front five”. So we should probably discount runners in the middle to outer brackets if they seem likely to join the early front-runners. [Table 5]

Look for previous wins in graded races

Of 18 top three finishers over the last six years, 15 had previous experience of winning a JRA graded race. Those with no such experience have fared poorly, on the other hand, with a top 3 ratio of only 7.1%. The first thing we should check this year, then, is whether any of the runners has previous experience of winning a graded race. [Table 6]

Next, of those runners with previous experience of winning a JRA graded race, those with wins in 1,600m turf races have achieved even better success ratios, with a win ratio of 20.8% and a top 2 ratio of 33.3%. When comparing winners of previous graded races, those with experience of winning over 1,600m on turf – the same as this one – should surely get the nod. [Table 7]

Discount lightweight runners?

Of 18 top three finishers over the last six years, 14 have recorded a weight of “460kg or more” on starting. Conversely, those with a starting weight of “Less than 460kg” perform less well, with a top 3 ratio of only 8.9%. Though this race is limited to fillies and mares, it might be best to discount those of unduly small stature. [Table 8]

(Data analysis by Masaya Ibuki)