Data Analysis for the "2012 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1)"

A tough test over a distance rarely experienced by most runners!

The Japanese Oaks, second in the Triple Crown series of filly classics, is run over 2,400m – a distance rarely experienced before by any of the runners. The speed and sprinting power needed for the mile-long Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) are not always enough to bring success in this race; in 2011, for example, the favorite and Oka Sho winner Marcellina only managed to finish 4th. On the other hand, horses that have won both the Oka Sho and Japanese Oaks continue to perform at a high level; there have been three of these "double winners" over the last 10 years (Still in Love, Buena Vista, Apapane), and all have achieved further G1 wins after the Japanese Oaks. So which is it to be this year – a horse like one of these, or an upset like last year? Let's first check some trends based on data from the last ten years.

Strong performances from middle favorites

In the last ten years, six runners in the Japanese Oaks have been backed by win odds of 2.9 or less, but their top 2 ratio is only 50.0%. There have actually been four horses with win odds of less than 2, and they too have only achieved a top 2 ratio of 50.0%. But while the strongly favored horses seem not to have it so easy, those backed by win odds of "5.0-14.9" tend to put up a stronger fight. The strong performances by runners with win odds of "5.0-9.9" look particularly persuasive. Incidentally, no winner of the Japanese Oaks over the last 10 years has been backed as 8th favorite or lower in the win odds. [Table 1]
* Tie for 1st place 2010

Most successful runners come straight from the Oka Sho

The vast majority of Japanese Oaks winners had most recently competed in the Oka Sho. Last year, admittedly, both the winner and the runner-up came from different races (Wasurenagusa Sho, Flora Stakes). Generally, though, horses coming from anything other than the Oka Sho tend to struggle in the Japanese Oaks; the only ones to win over the last 10 years were Kawakami Princess in 2006 (Sweetpea Stakes), Saint Emilion in 2010 (Flora Stakes), and Erin Court in 2011 (Wasurenagusa Sho). [Table 2]

Look out for rebounds from the Oka Sho

Horses most recently seen in the Oka Sho perform well in this race when they finished in the top 2 in the Oka Sho. But those finishing 6th-8th in the Oka Sho often seem to bounce back in this race; Smile Tomorrow in 2002 (6th in the Oka Sho), Daiwa el Cielo in 2004 (7th in the Oka Sho) and Tall Poppy in 2008 (8th in the Oka Sho) have all won their laurels as Japanese Oaks winners. Incidentally, all three of these had already won a graded race before competing in the Oka Sho.

Next, turning to the runners performance by win odds favoritism in the Oka Sho, horses backed "within the top 5 favorites" in that race have turned in good performances in the Japanese Oaks. It may be interesting to check for horses that were strongly favored in the Oka Sho but only finished 6th-8th. [Table 3] [Table 4]

Good performances from runners not appearing in Oka Sho trials

Three races have been designated as "Oka Sho trials": the "Tulip Sho", the "Anemone Stakes" and the "Fillies' Revue". The statistics reveal that horses not appearing in any of these races have always occupied one or both of the top two places in the Japanese Oaks over the last 10 years. Most of these horses have either won open stakes races or finished in the top three in a graded race in the past. Additionally, 2011 runner-up Pure Brise had finished 4th in the Fairy Stakes. Although the focus is on runners in the "Oka Sho group", it might also be interesting to look at horses coming to the Japanese Oaks from this kind of race background. [Table 5]

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)