Data Analysis for the"2012 Yasuda Kinen (G1)"

Prepare for a fierce contest to decide the spring's strongest miler!

The 2011 Yasuda Kinen was won by Real Impact, backed as only the 9th favorite with win odds of 29.3. This was the first time a 3-year-old had won the race since the grading system was introduced in 1984. And of 13 winners since 1999, Vodka (2009)is the only one to have started as favorite. Indeed, despite this race's billing as the spring short-distance champion decider, there have been surprisingly few occasions when the horse expected to take the title has actually done so; unfancied horses have not infrequently carried off the spoils. So – will a horse without strong pre-race backing again cause an upset this year? Or will one of the more fancied runners reward fans for their support? Let's analyze some trends in this race from results over the last 10 years.

For foreign-trained horses, the pre-race process is key!

Over the last 10 years, a total of 24"foreign-trained horses" have entered this race, and four of them have finished in the top 3. Although the success ratios are not that high, it might be worth checking if any horses from overseas will be competing in the race this year. [Table 1]

More specifically, all four foreign-trained horses with top 3 finishes in the Yasuda Kinen had most recently appeared in the Hong Kong Champion Mile, finishing in the top 3 there as well. In that case, we could expect even greater things from foreign-trained horses with this kind of pre-race record. [Table 2]

Look for horses with a good performance in their previous outing

Studying the runners' performance over the last 10 years (excluding foreign trained horses) in terms of the finish in their previous outing, we find that 12 of the 20 top 2 finishers had performed well in their previous race, finishing"in the top 3". Moreover, horses placed in the top 3 in their previous race have far higher success ratios than those beaten to"4th or lower" in their last outing. In this race, then, we should basically focus on horses with a good performance in their previous race. [Table 3]

The majority of horses achieving a top 3 finish in the Yasuda Kinen despite finishing"4th or lower" in their previous race had already experienced a top 2 finish in another JRA G1 race. Only two horses (Balance of Game in 2004, Jolly Dance in 2007) were placed in the top 3 in the Yasuda Kinen despite finishing"4th or lower" in their previous race and having no experience of a top 2 finish in a JRA G1 race. However, both of these had experienced a top 5 finish in a JRA G1 race. It may be difficult for horses to recover from a placing of"4th or lower" in their previous race if they have no experience of a strong finish in a JRA G1 race. [Table 4]

Focus on course aptitude

On investigating the race experience of Japanese runners over the last 10 years under similar course conditions, 16 of the 20 top 2 finishers turn out to have previously experienced a top 2 finish in a graded race on turf at Tokyo Racecourse. Horses in this category have far higher success ratios than those without such experience, moreover. When comparing past race records, we ought to focus on horses that have previously vied for top spot in graded races on turf at Tokyo Racecourse. [Table 5]

Points to check about horses appearing in preliminaries

Of 156 Japanese horses contesting the Yasuda Kinen over the last 10 years, 86 had most recently appeared in either the"Keio Hai Spring Cup" or the"Yomiuri Milers Cup". However, runners most recently seen in the"Keio Hai Spring Cup" or the"Yomiuri Milers Cup" have achieved significantly poorer win ratios and top 2 ratios than those previously contesting"Other races". These two races may well be the main preliminaries, but horses competing in them do not necessarily perform well in the Yasuda Kinen. [Table 6]

Looking more specifically at the performance by order of estimated final 3-furlong time of runners previously seen in the"Keio Hai Spring Cup", horses with an estimated final 3-furlong time ranked"3rd or lower" among the competing runners have faced a difficult struggle in this race, with a top 3 ratio of only 2.7%. When comparing runners coming straight from the"Keio Hai Spring Cup", we should pay attention to their performance in the closing stages of that race. [Table 7]

Finally, viewing the runners' performance by finish in the previous race when it was the"Yomiuri Milers Cup", horses with a finish higher than their favoritism in the previous outing have had a hard time in this race, with a top 3 ratio of only 9.1%. Horses achieving a higher finish than their win odds favoritism in the previous race when it was the"Yomiuri Milers Cup" may just have to be counted out of the running for the Yasuda Kinen. [Table 8]

(Data analysis by Masaya Ibuki)