Data Analysis for the "2012 Takarazuka Kinen (G1)"

The ultimate showdown between top horses bursting with talent and popularity!

The Takarazuka Kinen is one of two JRA G1 races to feature a "Fans' Poll", the other one being the Arima Kinen at the year's end. This ultimate showdown, again held on the last Sunday in June this year, could rightly be dubbed the "Grand Prix" of the first half-year. But while the top places are generally contested by the more favored runners, seven horses ranked no higher than 6th in win odds favoritism have finished in the top two over the last 10 years. So will it be another dark horse to triumph this year? Or will the more fancied runners be first past the post again? Let's check some trends in this race from statistics over the last 10 years - including 2006, when it was held on the 2,200m turf track (outer course) at Kyoto Racecourse.

All eyes on the 4-year-olds

Viewing the runners' performance in terms of age, we find that "4-year-olds" have amassed an impressive track record over the last 10 years, with 6 wins and 4 runner-up spots. What's more, 4-year-olds have the best figures in all three success ratios (win ratio, top 2 ratio, top 3 ratio), and for that reason demand our attention again this year. On the other hand, the winners and runners-up in 2008, 2009 and 2011 were all "5-year-olds" and "6-year-olds". This also deserves some consideration as a recent trend. [Table 1]

Check the performance by win odds

Although two runners with long odds of "30.0-49.9" have won the Takarazuka Kinen over the last 10 years, the more strongly favored horses tend to turn in better performances. Even so, three of the winners have been backed by win odds of only "10.0-19.9", proving this race's potential for throwing up a dark horse. On the other hand, horses with win odds of "20.0-29.9" have failed to produce a single top 3 finish – another fact that may be worth remembering. [Table 2]

Ritto-trained horses dominate

In the Takarazuka Kinen over the last 10 years, "Horses based at Miho Training Center (Miho-trained horses)" have only produced a single top two finisher – the 2010 winner Nakayama Festa. Altogether, five Miho-trained horses have been backed as 1st or 2nd favorite in this race, but the only one to finish in the top three was Zenno Rob Roy, placed 3rd in 2005. The Takarazuka Kinen seems to be dominated by "Horses based at Ritto Training Center (Ritto-trained horses)". [Table 3]

Good showing if previous race was G1

Horses coming straight to the Takarazuka Kinen after appearing in "International and domestic G1" races tend to perform well. Altogether, ten runners most recently seen in "International and domestic G2" races have finished in the top three, but for nine of them, the previous race was the Kinko Sho. The exception was Pop Rock (3rd in 2007), previously seen in the Meguro Kinen. [Table 4]

If we now take those horses previously seen in "International and domestic G1" races and group them according to their finish in those races, we find that most of the better performers also enjoyed a top three finish in their previous race. One runner, Narita Century (2006), recovered from 12th place in the Tenno Sho (Spring) to finish 2nd in the Takarazuka Kinen, but that year could be seen as an exception as the race was held at Kyoto Racecourse. Again, a total of seven runners were previously seen in overseas G1 races, but only one of them – 2007 winner Admire Moon – had managed a top three finish in that race (Hong Kong QE II Cup, 3rd). [Table 5]

Check for appearances in the previous year's Arima Kinen, and subsequent form

Horses appearing in the previous year's Arima Kinen, followed by a top two finish in a graded race before running in the Takarazuka Kinen have finished 1st or 2nd in this race every year except 2002. Top-class racehorses tend to be rotated variously these days, but this statistic could still be seen as interesting. [Table 6]

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)