2012 Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Preview

The Takarazuka Kinen, established in 1960 and opened to foreign-trained horses in 1997, became the first international Grade 1 race to be held in western Japan and is also the final top-level race of the Japan Racing Association's spring season.

Like the year-ending Arima Kinen in December, the horses are chosen in part by the fans. The top 10 vote-getters receive an automatic place in a maximum field of 18 in the 2,200-meter turf race, staged at Hanshin Racecourse near Osaka.

Though open to horses based overseas, there has been only one such contestant -- the Australian-trained Seto Stayer in 1997. This year, despite Red Cadeaux's nomination, there will be no foreign raiders.

Named after the Hyogo Prefecture city, which is located nearby, the inaugural Takarazuka Kinen was held initially at a distance of 1,800 meters and assumed its current distance in 1966. The race starts in the pocket of the home straight with a run of 500 meters before three right-handed turns leading back into the stretch. The course remains flat for most of the trip until the last 800 meters, where it descends toward the 200-meter mark before rising two meters over the next 150 meters.

The race record of 2 minutes, 10.1 seconds was set in 2011 by Earnestly.

The Takarazuka Kinen had long been known to favor the day's favorites, with the first choice having won 21 of the past 52 races, the second pick 15 times. Last year's champion Earnestly, as well as the 2010 winner, Nakayama Festa, however, were sixth and eighth pick, respectively. The race favorite (Buena Vista both years) did come in second two years in a row.

But while the top places are generally contested by the more favored runners, seven horses ranked no higher than 6th in win odds favoritism have finished in the top two over the last 10 years. Viewing the runners' performance in terms of age, 4-year-olds have turned in six wins and four seconds over the past decade. Four-year-olds also have the best figures in all three success ratios (win ratio, top 2 ratio, top 3 ratio). That said, the winners and runners-up in 2008, 2009 and 2011 were 5 and 6, which could be a new trend in itself.

The following are the early favorites:

Orfevre Orfevre - Sitting, as is fitting of a Triple Crown champion, at the top of the list of fan favorites, is Orfevre. The 2011 Horse of the Year received over 72,000 votes (more than 24,000 more votes than what went to runnerup Tosen Jordan, who is not running in the Takarazuka Kinen). Whether it's nostalgia, blind faith, a belief in his ability, or simply a desire to see him run win or lose that saw him capture so many votes is uncertain. The same could be said of the continued choice of jockey. Set to ride the irons yet again is Kenichi Ikezoe, despite what appeared to be some pretty wild riding or, at best, some pretty wild moves, in Orfevre's last two outings. In most cases, one of the team would have been sent packing, and since it's the horse doing the running, it goes without saying which of the two would have flown. Not the case in Japan, where things are known, at times, to be done differently. In any case, the now 4-year-old son of Stay Gold is not a shoo-in for the race favorite at the betting windows. Still, word is that Orfevre has been working far better than he had been prior to his last start, the Tenno Sho (Spring). He is said to be moving just fine, even when pushed, and it's believed he can run his race if (and it's a big if) he has a mind to. No longer under investigation by the racing authorities, the pressure has been off, and with luck the colt will have what he needs to show he wasn't just a 3-year-old shooting star. Hanshin Racecourse has suited Orfevre before. In his three races at the venue -- over 1,800, 2,400 and 3,000 meters -- Orfevre won the first two and was but half a length out of the winner's circle in the 3,000-meter Hanshin Daishoten on March 18. That said, his 11th-place finish in his last race (perhaps one should say "non-race") has done nothing to rebuild trust. With nothing forthcoming from the horse's mouth, the faithful can only hope that they and Orfevre will have the last laugh on those who turn their backs on a four-time G1 winner.

Rulership Rulership - The horse that was neck and neck in the fan balloting with Takarazuka Kinen no-show Tosen Jordan was newly dubbed darling Rulership. He wooed himself into the hearts of fans with a pride-boosting, hands-down, 3 3/4-length victory of the Queen Elizabeth II Cup in Hong Kong this past April. Giving Japan reason to celebrate along with the blueblood jubilations in the U.K. this year, Rulership bagged his first G1 race in royal style. Much can be said for the exemplary riding of young Italian Umberto Rispoli, as well as for the objective decision-making of ace trainer Kazuhiko Sumii, who has no qualms about switching jockeys as he sees fit. Sumii sticks by his horses and this year as well, he's giving Rulership all the help he can get by giving the ride to yet another ace, Australian rider Craig Williams. Rulership was fifth in last year's Takarazuka Kinen some 5 1/2 lengths off winner Earnestly. It will be his first race since Sha Tin and getting the kind of rail-hugging ride he enjoyed in Hong Kong may be left largely up to fate. But, the 5-year-old son of King Kamehameha, who ended his short racing as a 3-year-old, is looking far more powerful than he did last June.

Eishin Flash Eishin Flash - Hot on the heels of Rulership for the heart of the fans with just shy of 45,000 votes and fourth place is Eishin Flash, winner of the 2010 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). Unfortunately, that race also represents Eishin Flash's last win, some 10 races ago. He has finished in the money six of those times, however, and can by no means be considered a flash in the pan. Of more concern is that the Takarazuka Kinen is his first race since returning from Dubai and a sixth-place finish in the Dubai World Cup on March 31. On the other hand, his freshness at the end of, what has been for most, a long season, could work to his advantage. Third in last year's Takarazuka Kinen, a length and a half out, Eishin Flash will once again be paired with Hiroyuki Uchida, who rode him for three of his wins, including the Derby, and nearly exclusively until Uchida was sidelined due to injury. Uchida went out with a bang, but has come back with one as well. He currently, with 49 wins, holds the No. 6 spot in Japan's jockey rankings. It could prove a winning combination again.

Win Variation Win Variation - Japanese fans, as do many racing fans the world over, often have a soft spot for those who come up consistently short. Not quite an underdog but definitely one who hasn't reaped the glory Win Variation has run consistently in the money. By Heart's Cry, this 4-year-old has failed to make the top three in only five of his 13 career starts. His last win came in April of last year and in the seven races after he has scored four seconds and one third. Those seconds include the Derby and the Kikuka Sho, and this year's Nikkei Sho. And, he ran third in the Tenno Sho (Spring) last time out. Although a G1 gem has eluded him, he has come close and at Hanshin as well. His three starts at Hanshin have brought one win, one second and a fourth. His second was in the 2,400-meter G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai last September. Yasunari Iwata, not his usual rider Yutaka Take, has the ride. Win Variation tends to sit toward the rear and bide his time before a final drive, a style that suits Iwata as well, especially at the distance. His sire Heart's Cry also ran second in the Derby, packed on the muscle as a 4-year-old and finished second in both that year's Takarazuka Kinen and Japan Cup before winning the Arima Kinen. If it's father like son, this could be Win Variation's time to shine.

To the Glory To the Glory - Sixth in the fan balloting is To the Glory, fresh off a win of the G3 Naruo Kinen at Hanshin on June 2. It was an easy pace, but he put in a smooth run from second position and covered the final 3 furlongs in a neat 33.2 seconds. Third in the Arima Kinen for two years straight, To the Glory has what it takes to nab his first G1. And, at well over 500 kg, the Naruo Kinen will have worked well to sharpen up this big King Kamehameha boy. In the saddle and perhaps with a slight hint of revenge in the air about him is Yuichi Fukunaga, Rulership's old rider. Japan's current leading jockey, with 67 wins, is hot off a win of the Yasuda Kinen aboard Strong Return. Asking him to make good on To the Glory's 13th-place finish in last year's Takarazuka may be a tall order, but the 5-year-old To the Glory is two for three this year. Four of his eight career wins have come at Hanshin.

Beat Black Beat Black - Beat Black surprised with a 4-length win of the Tenno Sho (Spring), but his relative anonymity is reflected in his No. 16 spot in the fan ballots. It was his first G1 win and first win in over a year. A 5-year-old by Miscast, Beat Black has only, in fact, only six of his 28 races. Distance-wise, the Takarazuka Kinen represents a huge drop back, but Beat Black has won at 2,400 meters three times, all at Hanshin. This jet-black beauty may be a dark-horse to watch.

Earnestly Earnestly - Last year's winner, Earnestly picked up one more win in September, but has done poorly since. His two starts this year have brought him a sixth and a fifth, the latter in the Naruo Kinen. Still, the pace hampered his getting a good position and he rallied well despite running under a heavier weight than those that beat him to the wire. Overall, the loss was not as bad as it would seem from finishing order alone and over 30,000 fans backed him in the Takarazuka Kinen voting. A strong pace would be most welcome for this 7-year-old son of champion miler Grass Wonder.

Also to watch will be the Manhattan Cafe 4-year-old Shonan Mighty, coming off a second in the Naruo Kinen behind To the Glory and prefixing that with a win of the Sankei Osaka Hai, also at Hanshin. Whale Capture, just off victory in the Victoria Mile, has proven a dependable filly, albeit in all-female company and largely over shorter distances. She has figured out of the money only twice in her 13 starts so far. Though it will be a reach among mixed company, she may have what it takes to make the top three spots. Two wild cards to watch are Federalist, with four wins and one second in his last five outings, and the lightly run Deep Impact 3-year-old Mount Shasta, running at the distance for the first time, with three wins and a second at 1,800 meters and success at Hanshin.

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Once again, the race is part of the international Breeders' Cup Challenge, a global series of stakes races whose winners earn automatic starting positions into the Breeders' Cup World Championships. The winner of the Takarazuka Kinen, this year in its 53rd running, will automatically qualify for a berth in the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), run at 1 1/2 miles (2,400 meters) on the turf as part of this year's Breeders' Cup gala Nov. 2-3 at Santa Anita Park in California.

The 275-million yen Takarazuka Kinen, with first-place prize money of 132 million yen, is the 11th race on the 12-race card at Hanshin on Sunday, June 24. Post time is 3:40 p.m.

* The JRA graded race results and videos are available at the JRA Graded Races page ( English, Chinese, Korean, French ).