Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Shock results by no means rare in this year-end “Dirt King” decider
Of the last 16 winners of this race (including the years up to 2013, when it was known as “Japan Cup Dirt”), 11 were nominated as Best Dirt Horse in that year’s JRA Awards. As the name suggests, this is a race to decide the “king” of the year’s dirt racing program. Last year’s Champions Cup was won in a major upset by 12th favorite Sambista with win odds of 66.4, producing a Trifecta yield of 318,430 yen. Of the last 16 times this race has been run, a horse backed by win odds of 15-1 or more has finished in the Top 3 every year except in 2001. We should therefore keep our eyes not only on the form of horses that capture all the attention, but also on dark horses coming with a lowly pre-race billing. This time, let’s analyze points shared by successful horses in this race from results over the last 10 years.

Horses born or trained overseas perform poorly
Over the last 10 years, nine foreign horses have entered this race but none has finished higher than 4th. The last to finish in the Top 3 was 2003 winner Fleetstreet Dancer. [Table 1]

Again, if we look at aggregate performances by Japanese horses born overseas over the last 10 years, 12 out of a total of 13 have been beaten to 4th or lower; the only one to enter the Top 3 in that time was the 2006 runner-up Seeking the Dia. We should probably lower our expectations not only of horses coming from overseas to compete, but also of those born overseas. [Table 2]

Check the finish and favoritism last time out
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, all except 2008 winner Kane Hekili had finished in the Top 4 in a domestic race last time out. This race basically seems to suits runners coming on the back of a strong performance in their previous outing. [Table 3]

Besides this, each of the last 10 winners had also been among the Top 4 favorites to win a domestic race last time out. By contrast, horses backed as 5th favorite or lower in that race have struggled somewhat here, with a Top 3 ratio of only 12.0%. When comparing the pre-race form, we should have high expectations not only of horses that finished well last time out, but also of those that were strongly favored in that race. [Table 4]

Check this year’s form
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 19 had already experienced a Top 2 finish in a JRA dirt graded race over a distance of 1,600-1,800m in the same year. Horses answering to this description also have relatively high success ratios, including a Top 3 ratio of 30.2%. It seems we can place our reliance on horses that have seen success in JRA dirt graded races over these distances since the turn of the year. [Table 5]

Meanwhile, of horses without experience of a Top 2 finish in a JRA dirt graded race over 1,600-1,800m in the same year, 8 of the 11 that finished in the Top 3 in this race had previously experienced a Top 3 finish in “a G1 or NAR top-class (listed) race in November, December or January.” In fact, the five horses in this category since 2010 had all enjoyed Top 3 success in JBC races held by NAR in November that year. Any runners that have enjoyed success in winter G1 dirt races, and particularly JBC races held by NAR in November this year, deserve a closer look even if they don’t clear the other condition mentioned above. [Table 6]

Discount older horses
Viewing performances over the last 10 years in terms of age, no horse aged 7 or higher has managed to win in that time. [Table 7]

If we then narrow the field down to horses that had no experience of a Top 5 finish in the Champions Cup up to the previous year (including the Japan Cup Dirt era), we find that every horse aged 6 or more has been beaten to 4th or lower. We should not set great store by older horses, particularly those aged 6 and up that have no experience of finishing in the Top 5 in this race. [Table 8]

Position at 4th corner last time out – a key point in recent years
Finally, let’s look at aggregate performances in terms of the runners’ position at the 4th corner in their most recent outing, focusing only on those last seen in a “domestic race” over the last eight years (when this has been a 1,800m dirt race). The result is that horses with a position of “9th or lower” at the 4th corner last time out have a measly Top 3 ratio of 4.2% here. It would seem wise not to pin high hopes on horses that were placed too far back toward the end of their previous race.

Interestingly, though, horses passing the 4th corner in the “Leader” position last time have only managed a Top 3 ratio of 18.8%, lower than that of runners passing it in “2nd-8th” positions (25.0%). In fact, of 11 horses falling into this category over the last five years, four were backed as 1st or 2nd favorite in this race, but only finished 10th, 3rd, 12th and 7th, respectively. We might have to downgrade our assessment of runners if they led the pack past the 4th corner last time out, even if they come to this race with strong favoritism. [Table 9]

Seek out the winner!

Focus on racing record and details of previous outing
Each of the last five winners had already enjoyed a highest position of 5th or higher in a domestic G1 or NAR top-class (listed) race and experienced wins in graded dirt races in Japan that year. In other words, horses with experience of vying for the top places in a big race and wins in graded dirt races in the same year must be leading contenders to win this race. Other points shared by these five are that they all finished in the Top 4 last time out, were among the Top 4 favorites last time out, and passed the 4th corner in 2nd to 5th position last time out. When looking for the winner, our focus should be on the trends highlighted in Tables 3, 4 and 9 above. [Table 10]

(Masaya Ibuki)