Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks)(G1) - Data Analysis

Gala showcase for 3yo fillies carrying the future of Japanese racing
As Japan’s top contest for three-year-old fillies, the Japanese Oaks has a history of strong performances not only by fillies that have enjoyed successful careers but also by a long line of broodmares that have themselves produced outstanding racehorses. Just looking at the Top 2 finishers since 1984, when the grade system was introduced, seven of them - Yu Miroku (Gokai, Yu Fuyoho), Agnes Flora (Agnes Flight, Agnes Tachyon), Vega (Admire Vega, Admire Don), Air Groove (Admire Groove), Air Deja Vu (Air Messiah), Rosebud (Rose Kingdom) and Cesario (Epiphaneia, Leontes) - have produced future winners of JRA G1 races (including jump races) as of December 31, 2016. Let’s now analyze some trends in this important race, so closely tied to the future of Japanese racing, from results over the last 10 years.

Successful runners tend to have contested G1 or G2 races last time out
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had most recently contested a “G1 or G2” race. By contrast, runners coming straight from races with “Other conditions” have struggled, managing a Top 3 ratio of just 5.7%. Our expectations of fillies most recently seen in G3, Open-class, or other allowance-class races should not be too high. [Table 1]

Moreover, of runners over the last 10 years most recently seen in “G1 or G2” races, those finishing “In the Top 2” in that race have enjoyed outstanding success here, with a Top 3 ratio of 51.4%. It seems we can place our trust in fillies most recently seen in higher grade races and coming home among the first two in that race. [Table 2]

Incidentally, of horses most recently seen in races other than “G1 or G2” over the last 10 years, no runner finishing “3rd or lower” in that race has had any success here. Fillies coming straight from G3 or lower condition races need to have finished in the Top 2 in that race to have any chance of success here, it seems. [Table 3]

Performance in graded races since the turn of the year is important
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 25 had previous experience of a Top 2 finish in “JRA graded races in the same year.” Horses without this experience not only have a low Top 3 ratio of 5.6%, but have not finished in the Top 2 here since 2012. We should probably avoid runners with no experience of vying for victory in graded races, as well as those that have only succeeded in graded races as 2-year-olds. [Table 4]

Again, of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had previous experience of Top 4 favoritism in “JRA graded races in the same year.” These 27 also have excellent success ratios, including a Top 3 ratio of 31.0%. When checking performances in graded races since the turn of the year, we should pay attention both to the finish and to the favoritism at the time. [Table 5]

Front runners last time out fare poorly here
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had been positioned “4th or lower” when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. Conversely, those positioned “3rd or higher” at that point have only managed a Top 3 ratio of 7.3%; the only one to achieve a Top 2 finish here was the 2010 winner Saint Emilion. We should perhaps discount horses that led the pack last time out, even if they are highly favored in the betting. [Table 6]

Shorter careers providing best performances recently
Of 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years, 12 came with “5 or fewer” previous career starts. Runners with “6 or more” previous starts have a poor Top 3 ratio of 6.1%; the only one to finish in the Top 2 was the 2013 winner Meisho Mambo (6 previous career starts). If recent trends are anything to go by, we should be focusing on runners coming to this race with 5 or fewer career starts, rather than those with more abundant racing experience. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on horses with more positives
All of the last five winners had experienced a Top 2 finish in a JRA graded race that year. Other features shared by these five are that they had all experienced Top 4 favoritism in JRA graded races in the same year, had passed the 4th corner last time out in 7th position or lower, and had six or fewer previous career starts. Any runner clearing many of the conditions connected with previous races - particularly those in Table 4, Table 5, Table 6 and Table 7 above - must be a leading contender. [Table 8]

(Masaya Ibuki)