2018 News

June 18, 2018

RSS


Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring Grand Prix notable for standout performances by unfavored runners
Last year’s Takarazuka Kinen was won by 3rd favorite Satono Crown, while Kitasan Black (backed by solid win odds of 1.4) was beaten to 9th. In 2016, the victory was secured by 8th favorite Marialite. In 2015, the crown was taken by 6th favorite Lovely Day, while the 2nd and 3rd places were occupied by the 10th and 11th favorite runners, respectively. In other words, this is a race with a history of upsets, so we need to sufficiently bear in mind the possibility that poorly favored horses will rise to the top again this year. In this sense as well, it would be a good idea to check trends based on past data.

Unusual stats in performance by win odds
Over the last 10 years, four runners backed by win odds in the 1.0-1.9 range have appeared in the Takarazuka Kinen (including Kitasan Black last year), but none of these have secured a victory. Since Deep Impact won the 2006 race with solid win odds of 1.1, runners backed by win odds in the 1.0-1.9 range have consistently suffered defeats. Another interesting statistic is that only two of the 12 runners backed by win odds in the “3.0-6.9” range have finished in the Top 2. Runners with win odds in the 10.0-19.9 range have produced three winners in the last 10 years. However, all three winners were backed by win odds in the “10.0-14.9” range, and that runners with win odds in the “15.0-19.9” range were all beaten to 4th or lower. [Table 1]

[Table 1] Performance by win odds (10 years)
Win odds Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1.9 or lower 0-1-1-2 0% 25.0% 50.0%
2.0-2.9 2-3-1-0 33.3% 83.3% 100%
3.0-6.9 1-1-3-7 8.3% 16.7% 41.7%
7.0-9.9 2-1-1-11 13.3% 20.0% 26.7%
10.0-14.9 3-1-1-9 21.4% 28.6% 35.7%
15.0-19.9 0-0-0-9 0% 0% 0%
20.0-49.9 2-2-2-31 5.4% 10.8% 16.2%
50 or higher 0-1-1-45 0% 2.1% 4.3%

Check performances by “bracket” number and “horse” number
Looking at performances by bracket number over the last 10 years, we find that only runners starting in brackets 1, 6, and 8 have emerged as winners. Another interesting fact is that this group has produced zero runners-up. Moreover, if we look at performances by horse numbers grouped in pairs, we observe that runners with numbers “9, 10” or “11, 12” have enjoyed success (although the eight runners with horse No. 12 have all finished outside of the Top 3). In addition, a total of three runners with numbers “15, 16” or “17, 18” have won the race. Incidentally, the last 10 runners-up have entered the race with a number in the “1-9” range and seven out of 10 third-place finishers with a number in the “1-4” range. In other words, it is worth remembering that runners-up and third-place finishers have often started in the inner brackets in this race. [Table 2] [Table 3]

[Table 2] Performance by bracket number (last 10 years)
Bracket number Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1 1-0-4-10 6.7% 6.7% 33.3%
2 0-2-2-11 0% 13.3% 26.7%
3 0-1-1-15 0% 5.9% 11.8%
4 0-4-0-13 0% 23.5% 23.5%
5 0-3-0-15 0% 16.7% 16.7%
6 3-0-0-17 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
7 0-0-2-18 0% 0% 10.0%
8 6-0-1-15 27.3% 27.3% 31.8%
[Table 3] Performance by horse number (last 10 years)
Horse number Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1, 2 1-2-4-13 5.0% 15.0% 35.0%
3, 4 0-1-3-16 0% 5.0% 20.0%
5, 6 0-2-0-18 0% 10.0% 10.0%
7, 8 0-4-1-15 0% 20.0% 25.0%
9, 10 3-1-0-16 15.0% 20.0% 20.0%
11, 12 3-0-2-13 16.7% 16.7% 27.8%
13, 14 0-0-0-14 0% 0% 0%
15, 16 2-0-0-7 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%
17, 18 1-0-0-2 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%

Watch performance by previous race
Looking at performances in terms of the previous race contested by runners over the last 10 years, we find that runners that had contested a G1 race last time out enjoyed success. For example, runners that had come straight from the Tenno Sho (Spring) produced four winners. In addition, runners that had come straight from prep races, particularly the Kinko Sho up to 2011 and the Naruo Kinen from 2012, often performed well. [Table 4]

[Table 4] Performance by previous race (last 10 years)
Previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Tenno Sho (Spring) 4-3-2-34 9.3% 16.3% 20.9%
G1 race held from May of
the same year
0-2-4-11 0% 11.8% 35.3%
Other G1 race 1-2-1-12 6.3% 18.8% 25.0%
Kinko Sho 2-1-2-9 14.3% 21.4% 35.7%
Meguro Kinen 1-0-0-16 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%
Other G2 race 0-0-0-12 0% 0% 0%
Naruo Kinen 1-2-1-10 7.1% 21.4% 28.6%
Other G3 race 0-0-0-5 0% 0% 0%
Open Class Stakes
race/Allowance race
1-0-0-5 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
Note: G1 includes overseas races.
Note: Kinko Sho reflects records up until 2011, when it was held at the end of May.
Note: Naruo Kinen reflects records from 2012, when it was moved to June.

Focus on performance in January or February of the same year
In the last 10 Takarazuka Kinen races, runners that “had finished in the Top 2 of a graded race held in January or February of the same year” finished in the Top 2 in each year except 2011 and 2014. Last year’s winner Satono Crown also fell into this category. Accordingly, it would be a good idea to check the race record in January or February of this year’s runners. [Table 5]

[Table 5] Overview of Top 2 finishers in Takarazuka Kinen that also finished in the Top 2 of a graded race in January or February of the same year (last 10 years)
Year Finish Horse Race in question
2008 1st Eishin Deputy January 5 Kyoto Kinpai 1st
2009 2nd Sakura Mega Wonder February 21 Kyoto Kinen 2nd
2010 2nd Buena Vista February 20 Kyoto Kinen 1st
2012 2nd Rulership January 22 American JCC 1st
2013 2nd Danon Ballade January 20 American JCC 1st
2015 1st Lovely Day February 15 Kyoto Kinen 1st
2016 2nd Duramente February 28 Nakayama Kinen 1st
2017 1st Satono Crown February 12 Kyoto Kinen 1st
Note: When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is shown.

Also watch runners that contested their first race of the year in mid to late March
Looking at the Takarazuka Kinen Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years in terms of their racing record in the same year, we note that “runners that contested their first race of the year in mid-to-late March” have consistently delivered one Top 2 finisher in the seven years since 2011. Last year’s runner-up Gold Actor (fifth favorite) fell into this category. [Table 6]

[Table 6] Overview of Top 2 finishers in Takarazuka Kinen that contested their first race of the year in mid-to-late March (last 10 years)
Year Finish Horse First race of the year
2011 2nd Buena Vista March 26 Dubai World Cup
2012 1st Orfevre March 18 Hanshin Daishoten
2013 1st Gold Ship March 17 Hanshin Daishoten
2014 1st Gold Ship March 23 Hanshin Daishoten
2015 2nd Denim and Ruby March 22 Hanshin Daishoten
2016 1st Marialite March 26 Nikkei Sho
2017 2nd Gold Actor March 25 Nikkei Sho

Seek out the winner!
Check most recent G1 performance and G1/G2 record in last four outings
In the last six Takarazuka Kinen races, winners were runners that “had been beaten to 4th or lower in their most recent G1 race, but won a G1/G2 race in their last four outings.” Last year’s winner Satono Crown was beaten to 6th in his last race (Osaka Hai), but won his last-but-one race (Kyoto Kinen). In other words, it may be worth taking another look at runners with this kind of record this year. [Table 7]

[Table 7] Finish of last six winners in most recent G1 race and G1/G2 win in last four outings
Year Winner Recently entered G1 G1/G2 win
in last four outings
2012 Orfevre Previous race Tenno Sho (Spring) 11th 3 races back Arima Kinen
2013 Gold Ship Previous race Tenno Sho (Spring) 5th 2 races back Hanshin Daishoten
2014 Gold Ship Previous race Tenno Sho (Spring) 7th 2 races back Hanshin Daishoten
2015 Lovely Day 2 races back Tenno Sho (Spring) 8th 4 races back Kyoto Kinen
2016 Marialite 3 races back Arima Kinen 4th 4 races back Queen Elizabeth II Cup
2017 Satono Crown Previous race Osaka Hai 6th 2 races back Kyoto Kinen
Note: When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is shown.

 

(Yasunori Asano)

Takarazuka Kinen (G1) related contents
Breeders' Cup Challenge Race