Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1) - Data Analysis

Middle-distance champion decider: Race favorites raking up wins since 2000
In the Tenno Sho (Autumn) races held from 1984, when the grading system was introduced, to 1999, race favorites produced only two winners (Mr. C.B. in 1984 and Nippo Teio in 1987) and achieved a win ratio of only 12.5%. Meanwhile, nine of the 18 winners from 2000 to 2017 were backed as race favorites. Of the 23 G1 JRA races (including J-G1) held annually from 2000 to 2017, the Tenno Sho (Autumn) was one of only four races in which races favorites achieved a win ratio of over 50%, the three others being the February Stakes, the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), and the Arima Kinen (Grand Prix). This year again, the big question is whether one of the fancied runners will live up to expectations, or whether a dark horse will take us all by surprise and snatch the spoils. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on younger horses
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 28 were “horses aged 5 or less.” Meanwhile, “horses aged 6 or above” struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 2.7%. In other words, we should lower our expectations of horses aged 6 or above. [Table 1]

Runners with experience finishing in Top 2 of G1 race since previous year enjoy success
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 22 had experience finishing in the Top 2 of “a JRA G1 race since the previous year.” This group also achieved a Top 3 ratio of 31.9%. Our primary focus should therefore be on runners with experience finishing in the Top 2 of a major race since the previous year. [Table 2]

In addition, the remaining eight Top 3 finishers with no experience of finishing in the Top 2 of “a JRA G1 race held since the previous year” either contested in the “Mainichi Okan of the same year with a Top 7 finish” or “the Sapporo Kinen of the same year with a win” in their previous race. In other words, we should lower our expectations of runners that have no experience of finishing in the Top 2 of major race since the previous year, as well as those who did not finish in the Top 7 of this year’s Mainichi Okan or win this year’s Sapporo Kinen. [Table 3]

Strong showing by runners that were race favorites last time out
Looking at performances by runners that contested “a domestic race” last time out in terms of favoritism, we observe that runners backed as race favorites in their previous race achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 42.9%. At the same time, runners that were backed as “8th favorite or lower” were all beaten to 4th or lower. When comparing the lead-up races of this year’s runners, we should focus on their favoritism in the previous race. [Table 4]

Watch position when passing the 4th corner in previous race
Of the 18 Top 3 finishers in the last six years, 14 runners contested “a domestic race” as their previous race and were positioned “3rd-7th” when passing the 4th corner in that race. Meanwhile, runners that were positioned “1st-2nd” or “8th or lower” in such a race struggled with Top 3 ratios of 10.5% and 5.1%, respectively. Up to 2011, runners that were positioned “1st-2nd” or “8th or lower” when passing the 4th corner in their previous race produced many strong performers, but if trends in recent years are anything to go by, we should lower our expectations of runners other than those positioned “3rd-7th” when passing the 4th corner in the previous race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Check course aptitude
Each of the last 10 winners previously experienced a Top 3 finish in “a G1 or G2 race held at Tokyo Racecourse.” Incidentally, runners lacking such experience have struggled since 2008 with performance of [0-3-1-72] (Top 3 ratio of 5.3%), and have failed to produce a winner since Heavenly Romance in 2005. In other words, runners that have not performed favorably in a G1 or G2 race held at the Tokyo Racecourse (where the Tenno Sho (Autum) is contested) are unlikely to pull off a victory. [Table 6]

(Masaya Ibuki)