Data Analysis for the Japan Cup (G1)

The Japan Cup was originally created as an international race in which Japanese horses would test themselves against strong contenders invited from overseas, the aim being to "produce horses that can compete with the best in the world". In the 28-year history of the race, Japan-trained and foreign-trained horses have each won the title 14 times. But that's only part of the story; over the last 10 years, Japan-trained horses have been overwhelmingly dominant. Will the pride of Japanese horse breeding triumph again this year, for the 4th time in succession? Or will the stars of big overseas races stand in their way for once? To answer those questions, let's now analyze race trends from results over the past 10 years (including 2002, when the race was held at Nakayama).

Japan-trained horses rule the roost!

On comparing the performance of "Japan-trained horses" against "overseas-trained horses", horses trained in Japan account for 23 of the 30 runners finishing in the first three places. Overseas-trained horses are in a distinctly sticky patch, with only two wins, two 2nd places and three 3rd places over the same period. Again, in terms of the win ratio and the top 2 ratio, Japan-trained horses have been twice as successful as overseas-trained horses. [Table 1]

Next, on surveying "Horses with winning odds of less than 20 to 1", the difference between the two is even starker. Japan-trained horses with winning odds of less than 20 to 1 enjoy a top 2 ratio more than five times as high as overseas-trained horses, while the top 3 ratio is also double that of overseas-trained horses. When it comes to runners with a strong pre-race billing, it seems that Japan-trained horses can be trusted to perform better than overseas-trained horses. [Table 2]

Watch the foreign jockeys!

Turning now to the affiliation of successful jockeys, those affiliated "overseas" and those affiliated in "Japan" share the honors with five wins and five 2nd place finishes each. Overseas-affiliated jockeys just have the edge in terms of 3rd place finishes. In fact, overseas jockeys outperform Japanese jockeys in all three race performance indicators. [Table 3]

Next, viewing the performance of horses ridden by overseas-affiliated jockeys in terms of the country where the horses were trained, overseas-affiliated jockeys riding "Japan-trained horses" have performed admirably well, posting a top 2 ratio of 37.5% and a top 3 ratio of 56.3%. Clearly, we should be looking out for combinations of overseas affiliated jockeys and Japan-trained horses in this year's lineup. [Table 4]

Incidentally, on surveying the performance of "overseas-trained horses" in terms of the jockey sitting in the saddle, five of the seven overseas-trained horses that have finished in the top three have been ridden by "L. Dettori" (better known as Frankie)! Overseas-trained horses ridden by jockeys other than Frankie Dettori have a measly record of only [0-2-0-49] and a top 3 ratio (top 2 ratio) of only 3.9%. [Table 5]

Horses from the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and the Kikuka Sho do best!

On surveying the performance of "Japan-trained horses" in terms of the previous race entered, we find that 19 of 23 horses finishing in the top three come to the Japan Cup after a sortie in the "Tenno Sho (Autumn)" or the "Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger)". A look at the top 2 ratio and top 3 ratio, similarly, shows that horses whose previous race was the Tenno Sho (Autumn) or the Kikuka Sho have performed far better than those coming straight from "Other races". [Table 6]

The next section examines the performance of Japan-trained horses whose previous race was the Tenno Sho (Autumn) or the Kikuka Sho, in terms of the position finished in that race. Here, 17 of 19 horses finishing in the top three in the Japan Cup were also in the "Top 5" in their previous race. So it's easy - just look out for runners that performed well in the previous Tenno Sho (Autumn) or Kikuka Sho! [Table 7]

Discount for outer stalls?!

A look at the performance by runner number over the past 6 years since 2003 (when Tokyo Racecourse was refurbished) shows that 15 of the 18 horses finishing in the top three have been numbered "1 to 10". Runners numbered "11 to 18" have a distinctly harder time of it, with a win ratio of only 5.3% and a top 3 ratio (top 2 ratio) of 7.9%. Despite the relative length of this 2,400-meter turf course, it seems that the course loss provided by the outer stalls really does work to the runner's disadvantage. [Table 8]

(Data Analysis by Masaya Ibuki)