Data Analysis for the "Japan Cup (G1)"

For a while after its inauguration in 1981, the Japan Cup was thoroughly dominated by "foreign-trained horses". But ever since Katsuragi Ace took the crown in 1984, performances by "Japan-trained horses" have been getting better and better. In fact, Japan-trained horses have overwhelmed foreign-trained horses in recent years, completely overturning the previous balance of power. Foreign-trained horses still retain a strong presence, nonetheless; some entrants come with experience of winning Breeders' Cup events in the same year, and of these, Ouija Board finished 3rd in 2006 and Conduit took 4th place last year. Now let's pick out some noteworthy trends in this race, focusing on results over the last 10 years.

"Japan-trained horses" now dominant

First, let's confirm the "balance of power" between Japan-trained and foreign-trained horses. As [Table 1] shows, only 3 foreign-trained horses have finished in the top two, while 17 Japan-trained horses have achieved this – evidence enough of the dominance by Japan-trained horses. Of course, nearly twice as many Japan-trained horses have competed in this race compared to foreign-trained horses, but with overwhelming dominance in top 3 finishes and good performance ratios, the superiority of Japan-trained horses is unquestioned. Of these, "Kansai horses" based at Ritto have been performing particularly well. As for the others, two of the five foreign-trained horses with top 3 finishes were trained in England and one each in America, Italy and the UAE. It might be worth noting that both foreign-trained horses finishing in the top 3 over the last 5 years (Alkaased, winner in 2005, and Ouija Board, 3rd in 2006) were trained in England.

* Held at Nakayama Racecourse in 2002

Strong showing by Japanese horses with a "Top 4 finish" in their previous race

While Japan-trained horses in general have been overwhelmingly dominant in recent years, if we examine their performance in terms of their finish in the previous outing, 21 out of 25 horses finishing in the top 3 in the Japan Cup had a "Top 4 finish" in their previous race. Of the four horses that recovered from "5th or lower" in their previous race, two were Narita Top Road (3rd in 2001 after pulling up in the "Kyoto Daishoten") and Deep Impact (winner in 2006 after appearing in the "Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe", where it crossed the line in 3rd place but was disqualified). Meanwhile, both of the other two (2005 runner-up Heart's Cry and 2007 winner Admire Moon) had finished 6th in the "Tenno Sho (Autumn)" in their previous outing. While the data suggest we look for a "Top 4 finish" in the previous race, watch out for horses coming straight from the "Tenno Sho (Autumn)"; if they finished 6th, they might be worth checking. [Table 2]

Strong performers had a "Top 3 finish" in their penultimate race

Let's go further to examine the performance of Japan-trained horses in terms of their finish in their penultimate (last-but-one) race. Here, all eight Japan-trained horses that won the race had a "Top 3 finish" in their penultimate race, as did eight of the nine runners-up. Also, there were two horses that finished "4th or lower" in the penultimate race but had a top 3 finish in the Japan Cup, both in 2003 – runner-up That's the Plenty (penultimate race: Kobe Shimbun Hai, 5th) and 3rd-placed Symboli Kris S (penultimate race: Takarazuka Kinen, 5th). But even these had excelled with a GI win in their previous race, a point that could be well worth remembering. [Table 3]

Watch the stall numbers of foreign-trained horses

Now let's turn to foreign-trained horses. In the ten years that the Japan Cup has been held at Tokyo Racecourse since 1999, the stall numbers of foreign-trained horses with a top 3 finish have all been a "1-digit odd number" or a "2-digit even number", as [Table 4] shows. Moreover, looking at finishes down to 5th place, only one horse (Ouija Board, 5th in 2005) starting from a "1-digit even number" stall has finished in the top 5, while not one of 13 runners starting from a "2-digit odd number" stall has finished in the top 5. Foreign-trained horses may no longer be in the ascendancy, but it's still worth checking their stall numbers.

(Data Analysis by Michio Kono)