Data Analysis for the "Yasuda Kinen (G1)"

Over the last 10 years, this race has been won four times by horses based at Miho Training Center ("Miho-trained horses"), five times by horses based at Ritto Training Center ("Ritto-trained horses"), and once by a foreign-trained horse. As two of the five victories by Ritto-trained horses were back-to-back wins by Vodka in 2008 and 2009, the number of winners is the same for both Training Centers (four). So – will this year's spring mile champion decider be taken by a Ritto-trained horse, or for the second straight year by a Miho-trained horse, following the success of Showa Modern last year? Or will a foreign-trained horse prevail? Let's analyze the evidence from results over the last 10 years.

Previous race favorite – ahead by a nose!

First, let's look at the performance by win odds favoritism in the previous race when that race was held in Japan. Three winners and nine horses finishing in the top 3 of the Yasuda Kinen have been "1st favorite" in their previous race, achieving the highest top 3 ratio of 25.7%. In other words, runners tipped as favorite in their previous race deserve to be watched closely this year. However, those ranked "6th-9th favorite" in their previous race have also provided two winners, as well as chalking up the third highest top 2 ratio behind horses ranked "4th favorite" and "1st favorite" in their previous race. As this shows, groups ranked "2nd favorite or lower" in their previous race seem to have mixed fortunes. On the other hand, six horses coming straight from an overseas race have finished in the top 3, including two Japanese-trained horses (2006 runner-up Asakusa Den'en and 2007 winner Daiwa Major). Their strong top 3 ratio of 22.2% prohibits us from disregarding horses in this category. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Check the relationship between favoritism and finish in the previous race

Comparing the favoritism in win odds and the final placing of runners in their previous race, eight Yasuda Kinen winners coming straight from a race held in Japan finished that race in a position equal to or higher than their ranking in betting favoritism – or, if the finish was lower than the ranking, it was by no more than 2 places. We should evidently value the racing prowess of horses that performed as well as or better than expected in their previous race – or even if not so well, with a differential of no more than two places. [Table 3]

Check the G1 track record in the last 3 outings

Another interesting factor is the highest finish in G1 races within the last 3 outings. Over the last 10 years, eight horses have finished in the top 3 without appearing in a G1 race within their last 3 outings, but their top 2 ratio is only 5.1%. By contrast, excellent figures have been produced by runners with a best finish of 1st or 2nd in a G1 race within their last 3 outings. Those with a G1 win have a top 2 ratio of 21.4%, while G1 runners-up have a win ratio of 36.4% and a top 2 ratio of 45.5%. Even horses with a best finish of 10th or lower have achieved a top 2 ratio of 10%. Generally, in fact, the data reveal that horses appearing in a G1 race within their last 3 outings have a higher success rate than those that lack such experience. [Table 4]

Watch for Hong Kong-trained horses coming straight from the Champions Mile

Over the last 10 years, a total of 24 foreign-trained horses have entered the race, four of them finishing in the top 3. All four were from Hong Kong, all had previously appeared in the Champions Mile there, and all had finished in the top 3 in that race. So this year, too, it's worth checking to see if any of the runners are Hong Kong-trained and have appeared in this year's Champions Mile. [Table 5] [Table 6]