Data Analysis for the "Sprinters Stakes (G1)"

Last year's Sprinters Stakes was won by Hong Kong bred Ultra Fantasy, which defied low expectations as 10th favorite to become the third overseas winner of this race. Strong overseas runners will again be competing this year, and must be worth watching. The Sprinters Stakes now feels firmly established as a G1 race on the final day of the early autumn program at Nakayama. So let's check some trends in this race, based on data from the last 10 years.

Check the runners' performance compared to their win odds

Viewing the results of this race in terms of the runners' win odds, we find that, of the 20 top two finishers over the last 10 years, 17 had win odds of "less than 10.0". So although horses with win odds of "10.0 or more" have won the last two times, strongly favored horses normally take the first two places. Turning to horses finishing 3rd, conversely, seven have had win odds of "10.0 or more", revealing a conspicuous trend for dark horses to find their way into the top three. [Table 1]

Performance by bracket number reveals interesting trends

A breakdown of performance by bracket number over the last 10 years except 2002 (when the race was held at Niigata) reveals outstandingly good results for brackets"7" and "4", with four and three wins, respectively. Bracket number "2" has produced the most runners-up (three), the others tending to be evenly spread over the inside and outside brackets. Finally, three runners from each of brackets "6" and "7" have finished 3rd, and another three from brackets "1 and 2" combined, revealing a certain imbalance. Although it is impossible to predict whether similar trends will be repeated this year, this could be something to bear in mind. [Table 2]

Superior showing by horses last seen in the "Yasuda Kinen" and "Kitakyushu Kinen"

In their previous race, top three finishers in the Sprinters Stakes are most commonly seen contesting races in the "Summer Sprint Series", as well as spring G1 races over a mile or less. Particularly interesting here is that horses coming straight to this race from the "Yasuda Kinen" and "Kitakyushu Kinen" have notched two wins apiece, chalking up impressive statistics in the win ratio. What is perhaps even more remarkable is that both of the winners previously seen in the "Kitakyushu Kinen" (Aston Machan in 2007 and Sleepless Night in 2008) were fillies. [Table 3]

* = Races in the "Summer Sprint Series"
** "Other races in Japan" include the Keeneland Cup in the open class stakes era, and NAR (local government) races.

"Summer Sprint Series":
A series of five races (Hakodate Sprint Stakes, Ibis Summer Dash, Kitakyushu Kinen, Keeneland Cup and Centaur Stakes) held from July to September. Runners are awarded points depending on their finish in these races, and the horse with the most points overall is declared Series Champion (based on a minimum requirement of 13 points and at least one win). The owner of the Series Champion receives prize money of 40 million yen and the trainer 10 million yen.

Look out for recent winners of short-distance graded races

Every year, at least one of the top 2 finishers in the Sprinters Stakes has "won a graded race over 1,200m or less on turf two to four races previously". There have been 13 such horses, all of which except 2004 runner-up Durandal won a graded race in or after February in the same year. In other words, horses with a track record of winning a short-distance graded race in the same year also perform well in the Sprinters Stakes. So this year, again, it could be worth checking the runners' recent record in graded races when putting together our race predictions. [Table 4]

* When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is listed.

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)