2012 NHK Mile Cup (G1) - Preview

2011 NHK Mile Cup (G1)

Tokyo Racecourse

The top-level action moves from Kyoto and the Tenno Sho (Spring) for older runners back to the youngsters at Tokyo with some three dozen 3-year-old nominated to fill the 18 berths of the NHK Mile Cup on May 6.

For the well-bred and fleet-footed looking for something a bit shorter than the classic distances, the NHK Mile, now in its 17th year, has gone far to fill the order. The race has become increasingly significant not only as one of the most important mile races (along with the Yasuda Kinen) in determining the year's top miler, but as a good predictor of future success in a number of prestigious races at other distances, both at home and abroad.

The 3-year-old classics are not necessarily out of reach. The winners in the 2004 and 2008 versions of the NHK Mile Cup -- King Kamehameha and Deep Sky -- went on to win the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), as did Tanino Gimlet, who placed third in the 2002 NHK Mile Cup.

Later sprint champions as well have done well in the NHK Mile Cup. Two-time winner of the 1,200-meter Takamatsunomiya Kinen Kinshasa no Kiseki was third in the NHK Mile Cup in 2006 and Laurel Guerreiro, named the top sprinter in 2009 after winning both the Takamatsunomiya Kinen and Sprinters Stakes, came in second in the 2007 NHK Mile Cup.

The 1997 NHK Mile Cup champion, Seeking the Pearl, became the first Japanese-trained horse to win an overseas Grade 1 race, capturing the 2008 Prix Maurice de Gheest in France. El Condor Pasa, the 1998 winner, won the Japan Cup the following year and took second in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Eagle Cafe and Kurofune captured the NHK Mile Cup in 2000 and 2001, respectively. The two went on to win the Japan Cup Dirt. Last year, NHK Mile Cup third-place runner, Real Impact, went on to claim the Yasuda Kinen against older runners.

The Fuchu mile is not only a test of speed, but also a test of endurance. An especially difficult course to win on strategy alone, the Fuchu mile starts at the mouth of the backstretch, with a run of more than 500 meters that evens the chances of success for any draw. The course turns left for 400 meters before hitting the grueling Tokyo straight of 525 meters, the first 225 meters of which is uphill.

The NHK Mile Cup was originally a 2,000-meter trial for the 2,400-meter Tokyo Yushun from 1953 to 1995, until the race took on its current format in 1996 as the de facto mile championship for 3-year-old colts and fillies. As of 2009, the NHK Mile Cup was given international Grade 1 status. There are, however, no foreign horses in the race this year.

Though the NHK Mile Cup had been known for its upsets, the past two years have seen, perhaps as a result of increasingly savvy punters, the race favorite take home the 92 million yen winner's share. Danon Chantilly won in 2010 and still holds the record of 1 minute 31.4 seconds. Grand Prix Boss went to the gate the favorite last year and scooped the goods in collaboration with Craig Williams.

Step races to the NHK Mile Cup and others seen as good hunting ground for predicting the winners in the Mile Cup are, in order from most recent: the G1 2,000-meter Satsuki Sho, the New Zealand Trophy (G2, 1,600 meters), the Mainichi Hai (G3, 1,800 meters), the 1,400-meter G3 Falcon Stakes, the G3 Tulip Sho at 1,600 meters for fillies, and Arlington Cup (G3, 1,600 meters).

This year sees the following colts and fillies as the early favorites.

Curren Black Hill Curren Black Hill – This newcomer to the scene leapt unbeaten from one mile race to the next. He followed his January debut at Kyoto with the lower-class allowance race Kobushi Sho the following month, and then bested the field of the NHK Mile Cup trial G2 New Zealand Trophy at Nakayama last time out on April 7. By Daiwa Major, out of the Grindstone mare Charleston Harbor, the dark bay colt will be seen as the one to beat this Sunday on his Tokyo debut. His sire captured both the Yasuda Kinen and the Mile Championship twice and Curren Black Hill looks well on his way to following in his footsteps. The Osamu Hirata-trained colt blew away the New Zealand Trophy competition in a win by 2 1/2 lengths. Hirata is confident Curren Black Hill can handle it all, including his first time over a left-handed course. "He can do well over any surface and he's not a type that needs any particular trip to succeed. We have our first long haul behind us and he has worked well to the left so I don't foresee any problems." Only one other colt in the NHK Mile lineup, Mount Shasta, is as lightly raced, but only Curren Black Hill is unbeaten. All eyes will be on him to see if he can claim his first G1 on only his fourth outing.

Alfredo Alfredo – The son of Symboli Kris S went unbeaten to his last race and successfully answered expectations as the race favorite for his first three starts, all over 1,600 meters. He rose from his debut to an upper-class allowance race, then claimed the 2-year-old pinnacle Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, with Craig Williams up, in a new course record time of 1 minute 33.4 seconds. Last time out, however, he not only failed to rise to his second pick status, he failed miserably, turning in a 12th-place over a yielding surface in the 1,800-meter Spring Stakes at Nakayama. Trainer Takahisa Tezuka seems at a total loss as to the reason for Alfredo's limp performance in the Spring Stakes, his first race in three months. "Maybe he wasn't quite recovered from the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes. Maybe we worked him a bit too much, or maybe the going wasn't to his liking. I don't think it was the distance though." Alfredo took a pass on the Satsuki Sho to aim directly for the NHK Mile Cup. Taking into consideration the distance and the going of that race are the main reasons, however, this colt will still figure among the top picks Sunday. Back at the proven mile, Alfredo may return to his winnings ways, especially if the going is firm. It will be his first time at Tokyo, but a win at Niigata shows he can handle the trip to the left. Craig Williams is also expected to be back in the saddle this time out.

Just a Way Just a Way – This Heart's Cry colt has found the mile much to his liking He has two firsts and a second in his three races at the distance and is coming off a win of the mile Arlington Cup (G3) at Hanshin. Just a Way jumped to the open class after his debut and has figured no worse than fourth in all. His two times out of the money were over 1,800 meters and a fourth over soft ground at the Tokyo 1,800 and his debut win by 5 lengths at Niigata indicate he can handle not only the Fuchu course, but any going as well. Trained by this year's Satsuki Sho winning trainer Naosuke Sugai, Just a Way has, in all his five starts, drawn gates consistently wide, a factor that only underlines his stupendous acceleration. In the Arlington Cup, the colt came from 12 back into the straight to win by half a length. A slight cold forced him to sit out the New Zealand Trophy, but he has come along well in training.

Sacred Reve Sacred Reve – New Zealand Trophy runnerup Sacred Reve, is having a dreamy year so far, with one win and two seconds in his three outings. Having spent his 2-year-old over three races at 1,800 and longer, the change to the mid-distances seems to be suiting this son of Admire Moon to a tee. Trainer Kiyotaka Tanaka believes his colt can hold his own in the NHK Mile Cup. "He has won at Tokyo and he has a long, relaxed stride that is suited for the wide-open Tokyo course. That will be a plus where he should be really able to run full-out." Sacred Reve's win at Tokyo was in the open class Crocus Stakes over 1,400 meters. The race was run at a slow pace and Sacred Reve broke from the No. 6 gate and went from behind. He has shown, however, that he can go from the front and handle any pace.

Mount Shasta Mount Shasta – The other colt with only three races under his belt is Mount Shasta, by Japanese Triple Crown champion Deep Impact, out of the French Deputy mare Crow Canyon. Mount Shasta, who has raced exclusively at 1,800 meters, aced his first two outings but missed out on his last, the G3 Mainichi Hai, by 3/4 length. The Hanshin surface was yielding, however, which may have slowed his progress. It will be his first time to run to the left and his first trip eastward, but Mount Shasta definitely has what it takes to conquer the NHK Mile Cup.

Brightline Brightline – This Fuji Kiseki colt has had had nine starts already at his young age and has proven a consistent runner able to succeed over a number of distances. Following his debut fourth, Brightline finished in the money in his next three races, then seemed to fall into a slump for the next three, in which he turned in a fifth, 10th and seventh. Shortening the distance and taking on the Falcon Stakes two races ago helped him find his form and the winner's circle once again with a win over yielding ground at 1,400 meters. Brightline has won over 1,400, 1,800 and 2,000 meters and is coming off a third-place finish in the New Zealand Trophy. He has yet to race at Tokyo, but his win of the Falcon at Chukyo indicates he can handle a counterclockwise course.

Hana's Goal Hana's Goal – All set to wow in the fillies' classic Oka Sho, Hana's Goal was sidelined when she kicked the wall in the wash rack and injured the bulb of her hoof just days before the big race. The petite daughter of Orewa Matteruze had shot spectacularly into the limelight with her impressive 2 1/2-length win of the Tulip Sho on March 3. Before that, she had impressed with a rocket-like final 3 furlongs in 33 seconds flat in a 1,400-meter, lower-class mile at Tokyo. Eager to land her a berth in the Oka Sho, trainer Kazuhiro Kato took her to the Tulip Sho, where she proved no shooting star. Her weight dropped 14 kg, however, due to the long haul to Hanshin from Miho and Kato kept her there in hopes she would put the weight back on. Hana's Goal won't have the long trip this time but it has been two months since her last race. Hopes are high she will remember Tokyo with fondness.

Other names that are attracting attention are: the Daiwa Major-sired Olivine, fourth in the New Zealand Trophy; Satsuki Sho ninth-place Monstre; Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes third-place finisher Leo Active; as well as Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes runnerup Meiner Robusto and Shigeru Sudachi, who has won his last two outings and seems to be on the up and up.

Post time for the NHK Mile Cup is 3:40 p.m. The G1 is the 11th race on the Sunday card at Tokyo.