Data Analysis for the "2012 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1)"

Dreams and pride at stake in the biggest prize of a lifetime!

In 2005, Deep Impact overwhelmed the field as he powered his way to victory; in 2011, Orfevre produced an unbelievable final sprint in the rain to take the spoils. Both went on to snatch the autumn's Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) and thus complete a Triple Crown of wins in classic races. In between, 2007 winner Vodka was the first filly in 64 years to taste victory here. It would be fair to say that winning this race, known by some as a "festival of horseracing", is the highest honor in Japanese racing and the ambition of all Japanese horsemen. Now let's take a look at some noteworthy statistics mined from results in this race over the last 10 years.

Superb record by horses with three or more wins on turf!

Let's first examine the runners' performance in terms of their record of turf career wins. All ten winning horses over the last 10 years have had "3 or more wins", while nine of the runners-up also fall into that category. What's more, the success ratios get better as the wins mount up, until those with "5 wins" have a spectacular top 3 ratio of 80.0%. So this year, too, we would want to check the runners' career wins on turf. [Table 1]

Important to have won a graded race within the last three outings

If we turn now to the highest finish in a graded turf race within the last three outings, we find some very interesting statistics. Firstly, all twenty top 2 finishers had a highest finish of "1st" in their last three races. And besides these, 3rd place in this race has gone to four horses with "2nd" as their highest finish. On the other hand, no horse with a highest finish of "3rd or lower" or with "No record in graded turf races" has finished in the top 3 here. The highest finish in graded turf races within the last three outings will surely be a key point again this year. [Table 2]

Compare finishes in the last-but-one and last-but-two races

Digging a little deeper, finishes in the last-but-one and last-but-two races also seem worth checking out. Horses finishing "1st in both races" have a win ratio of 19.4%, a top 2 ratio of 22.6% and a top 3 ratio of 29.0% – the highest ratios in each category. And while they are followed by horses finishing "Higher in the last-but-one race" with a top 2 ratio of 14.0%, those finishing "Lower in the last-but-one race" have a top 2 ratio of only 6.2%. Even further down the scale, horses with the "Same finish in both races (except 1st)" certainly struggle to impress, never breaking into the top 2. In other words, we may need to cast an eye not only on the previous race, but on the last-but-one and last-but-two races as well. [Table 3]

Peerless win ratio among horses last appearing in a G1 race!

Turning finally to the runners' performance in terms of their previous race, we find that all ten winners over the last 10 years had appeared in one of the "Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas)", the "NHK Mile Cup" or the "Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas)" in their previous outing. These three G1 races also produce excellent top 3 ratios, outstripping those of horses previously competing in trials and other non-GI races. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues this year. [Table 4]

(Data analysis by Michio Kono)