The Japan Cup is a champion race held on the 2,400m turf course at Tokyo Racecourse. Its winner receives JPY 300 million in prize money. In 2020, the race unfolded as a historic contest between three triple crown winners: Almond Eye (2018 Fillies’ Triple Crown winner), Contrail (2020 Triple Crown winner), and Daring Tact (2020 Fillies’ Triple Crown winner). But how will this year’s race play out? Let’s now analyze some trends in results based on data from the last 10 years.
The last 10 winners of the Japan Cup had all contested one of three races last time out: the Tenno Sho (Autumn), the Shuka Sho, or the Kyoto Daishoten. Runners coming from the Shuka Sho achieved a high Win ratio, so we should keep a close eye on runners that fall in this group. Performance was poor for runners coming from the Copa Republica Argentina and lackluster for those coming from the Sankei Sho All Comers. When considering runners coming from the Tenno Sho (Autumn), which have delivered the highest number of strong performers, we should check the favoritism in that race. Runners that had been backed as 5th favorite or higher in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) delivered performance of [6-0-6-13], and achieved a considerably high Top 3 ratio of 48.0%. [Table 1]
| Previous race | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenno Sho (Autumn) | 6-3-8-38 | 10.9% | 16.4% | 30.9% |
| Shuka Sho | 2-1-1-2 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Kyoto Daishoten | 2-1-0-15 | 11.1% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe | 0-2-0-6 | 0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) |
0-1-0-4 | 0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Copa Republica Argentina | 0-0-1-18 | 0% | 0% | 5.3% |
| Sankei Sho All Comers | 0-0-0-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other race | 0-2-0-46 | 0% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
In recent years, runners starting in the inner brackets in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) have been said to perform well, and this trend also applies to the Japan Cup, which is held on the same course. We should note that runners starting in Bracket 1 have achieved a Top 3 ratio of 52.9% over the last 10 years. On several occasions, a pair of runners starting in the inner brackets have finished in the Top 2. This was the case in 2020 (Top 2 occupied by runners starting in Brackets 2 and 4), 2019 (Brackets 1 and 3), and 2017 (Brackets 1 and 1). [Table 2]
| Bracket number | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4-3-2-8 | 23.5% | 41.2% | 52.9% |
| 2 | 2-0-2-15 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 21.1% |
| 3 | 1-1-2-16 | 5.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| 4 | 1-1-0-18 | 5.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 5 | 0-2-0-18 | 0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 6 | 0-1-0-19 | 0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 7 | 1-0-3-18 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 18.2% |
| 8 | 1-2-1-22 | 3.8% | 11.5% | 15.4% |
Over the last 10 years, runners with four or more wins in JRA races in the same year have performed well in the Japan Cup, achieving a Top 3 ratio of 83.3%. If runners with such a record enter this year’s race, we should regard them as reliable contenders. However, there have also been many examples of successful runners that had zero wins in JRA races in the same year. Within this group, runners with experience of being beaten to 2nd or 3rd in a JRA G1 race in the same year delivered respectable performance of [4-1-1-9] (Top 3 ratio of 40.0%). [Table 3]
| Number of wins | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or more | 2-1-2-1 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| 3 | 0-2-1-11 | 0% | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| 2 | 2-2-3-18 | 8.0% | 16.0% | 28.0% |
| 1 | 1-2-1-32 | 2.8% | 8.3% | 11.1% |
| 0 | 5-3-3-42 | 9.4% | 15.1% | 20.8% |
The Japan Cup is a race contested by champions. Unsurprisingly, runners that had won a G1 race in the same year delivered noteworthy performance. With the exception of 2019 (when no applicable runners entered the race), runners in this group have finished in the Top 3 in each year since 2015, with Kitasan Black winning the race in 2016, and Almond Eye securing the victory in 2018 and 2020. [Table 4]
| Year | Number of runners | Performance (Top 3 finishers only) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3 | Lovely Day 3rd |
| 2016 | 2 | Kitasan Black 1st |
| 2017 | 4 | Rey de Oro 2nd, Kitasan Black 3rd |
| 2018 | 2 | Almond Eye 1st, Suave Richard 3rd |
| 2019 | 0 | - |
| 2020 | 3 | Almond Eye 1st, Contrail 2nd, Daring Tact 3rd |
Only one runner aged 6 or above has triumphed in the Japan Cup since 1990. The data show that runners aged 5 or less have a high probability of winning. Many winners in recent years had been strong performers since they were 3 years old, with eight of the last 10 winners having won a G1 race as a 3-year-old. This suggests we should consider runners aged 5 or less with experience of winning a G1 race as a 3-year-old as win contenders. [Table 5]
| Year | Winner | Age | Performance in G1 races as a 3-year-old |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Buena Vista | 5 | Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) 1st, Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) 1st |
| 2012 | Gentildonna | 3 | Fillies’ Triple Crown winner |
| 2013 | Gentildonna | 4 | Fillies’ Triple Crown winner |
| 2014 | Epiphaneia | 4 | Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) 1st |
| 2015 | Shonan Pandora | 4 | Shuka Sho 1st |
| 2016 | Kitasan Black | 4 | Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) 1st |
| 2017 | Cheval Grand | 5 | No such race entered |
| 2018 | Almond Eye | 3 | Fillies’ Triple Crown winner |
| 2019 | Suave Richard | 5 | Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) 2nd |
| 2020 | Almond Eye | 5 | Fillies’ Triple Crown winner |
