Ultimate contest that has produced memorable battles between champions of different generations

The 2021 Japan Cup was won by Contrail, who became the eight Triple Crown winner in JRA history a year earlier. The victory in the 2020 race went to Almond Eye, who had previously notched a total of eight wins in domestic and overseas G1 races, including the Tenno Sho (Autumn) of the same year. Of the 27 horses trained in Japan that have triumphed in the Japan Cup, only five had not won a G1 race since the previous year. Among these five, only two had also not finished 2nd in a G1 race since the previous year: Marvelous Crown in 1994 and Screen Hero in 2008. To determine the direction of this highly anticipated battle between the leading Japanese and overseas horses, let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Zero Top 3 finishes by foreign-trained horses since 2006

All 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years were Japanese horses. Among runners that were trained overseas, Ouija Board was the last to finish in the Top 3 (third place) in 2006. This suggests that we should again concentrate first on Japanese horses this year. [Table 1]

Focus on horses aged 5 or below

Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 were horses aged 5 or below. Meanwhile, runners aged 6 or above struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 2.1%. In other words, we need to discount horses aged 6 or above. [Table 2]

Track record in major races at Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse is important

Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 28 had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of “a G1 race with a field of 17 or more runners held at Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse.” Conversely, runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 2.6%. We should therefore lower our expectations of, first and foremost, runners that have not chased the top places in a G1 race, but also runners that have only performed well in a G1 race held at venues other than Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse. [Table 3]

Recent performances also a key point to watch

Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 had experience of finishing in the Top 4 of “a JRA G1 or G2 race held since April of the same year.” Conversely, runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 1.5%. We should therefore lower our expectations of runners that have not excelled in a JRA G1 or G2 race held since April. [Table 4]

In addition, of the 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years, 14 had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of “a JRA G1 or G2 race with a field of 12 or more runners held since April of the same year.” If trends in recent years are anything to go by, we should focus on performance in the last six months or so. [Table 5]

Runners starting in the inner brackets have had an edge in recent years

Of the 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years, 14 entered the race with the numbers 1-8. Meanwhile, horses with the numbers 9-18 struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 2.6%. Runners starting in the outer brackets performed well up to 2016, but if trends in recent years are anything to go by, we should focus on runners starting in the inner brackets. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Watch runners with fewest reasons for uncertainty

The last six winners were all aged 5 or below, had entered the Top 2 of “a G1 race with a field of 17 or more runners held at Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse” as their highest finish in such a race, had entered the Top 3 of “a JRA G1 or G2 race with a field of 12 or more runners held since April of the same year” as their highest finish in such a race, and entered the Japan Cup with the numbers 1-5. In sum, we should select runners with the fewest reasons for uncertainty by considering the trends highlighted in Table 1 to Table 6 above. [Table 7]