In the 2020 Japan Cup, Almond Eye defeated fellow Triple Crown winners Contrail and Daring Tact to notch an impressive eighth JRA G1 win in her last race. In the 2021 race, the victory went to Contrail. The Japan Cup has delivered numerous memorable contests in the past, making it the perfect event to close out the autumn races at Tokyo Racecourse. The question now is what kind of spectacle we can expect this year? Let’s look for some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in Bracket 1 secured the highest number of victories (four). If we limit our analysis to JRA-affiliated runners, we note that runners in this group achieved performance of [4-3-1-5], corresponding to a Win ratio of over 30% and a Top 3 ratio of over 60%. Runners starting in Brackets 2 and 3 have similarly turned in notable performance, producing two winners each, so this suggests we should raise our expectations of runners starting in the inner brackets. [Table 1]
| Bracket number | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4-3-1-9 | 23.5% | 41.2% | 47.1% |
| 2 | 2-0-4-13 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 31.6% |
| 3 | 2-1-2-15 | 10.0% | 15.0% | 25.0% |
| 4 | 1-2-0-17 | 5.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| 5 | 0-2-0-18 | 0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 6 | 0-1-0-19 | 0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 7 | 1-1-2-20 | 4.2% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| 8 | 0-0-1-26 | 0% | 0% | 3.7% |
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we observe that the last 10 winners were all backed as 5th favorite or higher. Eight of the 10 runners-up were similarly backed as 5th favorite or higher, and the last runner backed as 6th favorite or lower to finish in the Top 3 was third-place finisher Cheval Grand in 2016. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, it would seem prudent to focus on highly favored runners when making our predictions. [Table 2]
| Favoritism | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st favorite | 5-1-2-2 | 50.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| 2nd favorite | 0-2-3-5 | 0% | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| 3rd favorite | 2-2-1-5 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| 4th favorite | 2-1-1-6 | 20.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% |
| 5th favorite | 1-2-0-7 | 10.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| 6th-9th favorite | 0-2-2-36 | 0% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
| 10th favorite or lower | 0-0-1-76 | 0% | 0% | 1.3% |
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 20 had also contested a JRA G1 race in their previous race, and runners that had secured the victory in that race delivered remarkably consistent performance of [2-1-4-1] (Top 3 ratio of 87.5%). At the same time, runners that had previously contested a JRA G1 but had been defeated with a time difference of 1.0s or more with the winner turned in lackluster performance of [0-0-2-23], suggesting it is difficult to rebound from a major defeat. In addition, three winners coming from a JRA G2 race had all contested the Kyoto Daishoten in their previous race. Runners finishing 1st or 2nd or lower with a time difference of 0.2s or less with the winner in this race achieved performance of [3-1-0-8] (Top 3 ratio of 33.3%), so we should keep an eye on runners with such a profile. [Table 3]
| Previous race | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JRA GI | 7-6-7-48 | 10.3% | 19.1% | 29.4% |
| JRA GII | 3-3-3-44 | 5.7% | 11.3% | 17.0% |
| Overseas race | 0-1-0-29 | 0% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Other race | 0-0-0-16 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Three G1 races are held on the 2,400m turf at Tokyo Racecourse: the Japan Cup, the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), and the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks). Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 19 had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of these races. If we limit our analysis to the six years since 2017, runners in the aforementioned group delivered performance of [5-4-6-22] (Top 3 ratio of 40.5%), and accounted for the majority of the Top 3 finishers. [Table 4]
| Performance | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7-5-7-38 | 12.3% | 21.1% | 33.3% |
| No | 3-5-3-99 | 2.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% |
The last 10 winners were all horses aged 5 or below, and eight had experience of winning a JRA G1 race. Taking a look at the jockeys, we find that JRA top-ranked and foreign-affiliated jockeys have enjoyed remarkable success. If we limit our analysis to JRA-affiliated horses ridden by foreign-affiliated jockeys, we note that these runners delivered excellent performance of [5-2-2-14]. Two runners that notched their first G1 win in the race were also ridden by foreign-affiliated jockeys. This suggests we should take into account runners’ age, jockey, and track record in G1 races. [Table 5]
| Year | Winner | Age | Jockey | Wins in JRA G1 races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Gentildonna | 4 | Ryan Moore | Japan Cup, Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), etc. |
| 2014 | Epiphaneia | 4 | Christophe Soumillon | Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) |
| 2015 | Shonan Pandora | 4 | Kenichi Ikezoe | Shuka Sho |
| 2016 | Kitasan Black | 4 | Yutaka Take | Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), Tenno Sho (Spring) |
| 2017 | Cheval Grand | 5 | Hugh Bowman | None |
| 2018 | Almond Eye | 3 | Christophe Lemaire | Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), Shuka Sho |
| 2019 | Suave Richard | 5 | Oisin Murphy | Osaka Hai |
| 2020 | Almond Eye | 5 | Christophe Lemaire | Japan Cup, Tenno Sho (Autumn), etc. |
| 2021 | Contrail | 4 | Yuichi Fukunaga | Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), etc. |
| 2022 | Vela Azul | 5 | Ryan Moore | None |
