Japan Cup

November 18, 2024

Ultimate championship race in Japan

Held on the 2,400m turf course at Tokyo Racecourse, the Japan Cup is the ultimate G1 race that also draws foreign-trained runners. It is contested by elite runners, and many of its winners have taken up stud or broodmare duties after they retired. Let’s now look at some trends in this race based on results for the last 10 years

Focus on JRA-affiliated runners

While the race often attracts international stars, Alkaased was the last foreign-trained runner to triumph in the race in 2005. Over the last 10 years, the Top 3 finishers have all been JRA-affiliated. We should therefore focus on JRA-affiliated runners when planning bets. [Table 1]

[Table 1] Performance by affiliation (last 10 years)

Affiliation	Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]	Win ratio	Top 2 ratio	Top 3 ratio
JRA	10-10-10-109	7.2%	14.4%	21.6%
Foreign	0-0-0-25	0%	0%	0%
NAR	0-0-0-4	0%	0%	0%

Strong performance by runners aged 3 to 5

Over the last 10 years, all Top 3 finishers were aged 3 to 5. None of the 52 runners aged 6 or above secured a place in the Top 3. This suggests we should lower our expectations of runners aged 6 or above. [Table 2]

[Table 2] Performance by age (last 10 years)

Age	Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]	Win ratio	Top 2 ratio	Top 3 ratio
3	1-4-2-17	4.2%	20.8%	29.2%
4	5-3-4-38	10.0%	16.0%	24.0%
5	4-3-4-31	9.5%	16.7%	26.2%
6 or above	0-0-0-52	0%	0%	0%

Runners starting in the inner brackets fare well

Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in the inner brackets achieved excellent performance. In particular, runners starting in Bracket 1 achieved extremely high success ratios, including a Win ratio of 29.4% and a Top 2 ratio of 52.9%. [Table 3]

[Table 3] Performance by bracket number (last 10 years)

Bracket number	Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]	Win ratio	Top 2 ratio	Top 3 ratio
1	5-4-1-7	29.4%	52.9%	58.8%
2	2-0-4-13	10.5%	10.5%	31.6%
3	2-1-1-16	10.0%	15.0%	20.0%
4	0-2-0-18	0%	10.0%	10.0%
5	0-1-0-19	0%	5.0%	5.0%
6	0-1-0-19	0%	5.0%	5.0%
7	1-1-2-21	4.0%	8.0%	16.0%
8	0-0-2-25	0%	0%	7.4%

Focus on runners that have contested the Tenno Sho (Autumn) last time out

Runners coming from the Tenno Sho (Autumn), while high in overall number, have delivered respectable performance. Over the last six years, runners in this group have consistently finished in the Top 2, so we should select Top 3 contenders from this group. In addition, runners coming from the Kyoto Daishoten and Shuka Sho have also broken into the Top 3. [Table 4]

[Table 4] Performance by previous race (last 10 years)

Previous race	Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]	Win ratio	Top 2 ratio	Top 3 ratio
Tenno Sho (Autumn)	6-3-5-34	12.5%	18.8%	29.2%
Kyoto Daishoten	3-1-0-19	13.0%	17.4%	17.4%
Shuka Sho	1-2-1-3	14.3%	42.9%	57.1%
Copa Republica Argentina	0-1-1-13	0%	6.7%	13.3%
Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial)	0-1-1-0	0%	50.0%	100%
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe	0-1-0-5	0%	16.7%	16.7%
Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger)	0-1-0-4	0%	20.0%	20.0%
All Comers	0-0-1-7	0%	0%	12.5%
Victoria Mile	0-0-1-0	0%	0%	100%
Other race	0-0-0-53	0%	0%	0%

Seek out the winner!
Watch foreign or triple crown jockeys

Seven of the last 10 winners were ridden by a foreign jockey. The remaining 3 were all ridden by top class Japanese jockey who had achieved the Japan’s Triple Crown, namely, Yutaka Take with Deep Impact, Kenichi Ikezoe with Orfevre, and Yuichi Fukunaga (current trainer) with Contrail. In addition, looking at win records, we find that eight of the last 10 winners had previously dominated one or more G1 races. In other words, we can conclude the race has historically been won by a distinguished runner with a decent track record in G1 races ridden by an accomplished jockey. [Table 5]

[Table 5] Winners’ jockey and track record in G1 races (last 10 years)

Year	Winner	Jockey	Wins in G1 races
2014	Epiphaneia	Christophe Soumillon	1
2015	Shonan Pandora	Kenichi Ikezoe	1
2016	Kitasan Black	Yutaka Take	2
2017	Cheval Grand	Hugh Bowman	0
2018	Almond Eye	Christophe Lemaire	3
2019	Suave Richard	Oisin Murphy	1
2020	Almond Eye	Christophe Lemaire	8
2021	Contrail	Yuichi Fukunaga	4
2022	Vela Azul	Ryan Moore	G1 debut race
2023	Equinox	Christophe Lemaire	5

Note: G1 races include overseas G1 races

(Yodohito Himezono)