Sunday, Nov. 30 will see the 45th running of the Grade 1 Japan Cup at Tokyo Racecourse, where races are run counter-clockwise. The 2,400-meter turf event offers a winner’s prize of ¥500 million and a total purse more than double that amount.
The invitational, once an international gala with nearly half the field comprised of horses having flown in from abroad, in recent years has seen the number of foreign raiders drop as low as zero. This year, only one runner from overseas will be in the gate. But, it’s a doozy - Calandagan - just crowned Horse of the Year at the Cartier Racing Awards ceremony in London.
Calandagan, a three-time G1 winner, will vie alongside 17 Japanese horses, a strong showing that includes three Japanese Derby winners, all together seven Grade 1 winners. The deadheat runnerups in last year’s JC - Shin Emperor and Durezza -- are back again for another try.
The defending home team is headlined by a trio - two 3-year-olds, this year’s Japanese Derby winner Croix du Nord and Tenno Sho (Autumn) champion Masquerade Ball, along with the 4-year-old 2024 Japanese Derby winner Danon Decile, winner of this year’s Dubai Sheema Classic.
It’s been 19 years since the victor’s bounty left Japan when the U.K.-based Alkaased won under LanFranco Dettori and bettered the longstanding JC record set by Horlicks in 1989. The big question is, can Calandagan land the lode of gold?
Though Calandagan may have a hard time being boosted to race favorite on Sunday, the race itself does favor the favorite. Over the past 10 years, the No. 1 pick has won the race six times, finished second once and finished in third place twice.
Tokyo Racecourse is known for its spaciousness, long homestretch, and the long, long, upward slope beginning soon after the final bend. The Japan Cup race starts in front of the grandstand and completes just over one lap around. Horses will carry 58 kg, except for the two 3-year-old colts (Masquerade Ball and Croix du Nord) and one mare (Brede Weg), who will carry 56 kg.
The speed in this year’s race is expected to come from any of three strong possibilities, including last year’s frontrunner Shin Emperor. The other two are Sunrise Earth, who most recently went to the front in the Oct. 5 Kyoto Daishoten (G2, 2,400 meters), but was caught less than 200 meters out by Deep Monster and finished second. Then there’s Ho O Biscuits, who led in the Grade 2 Mainichi Okan (1,800 meters, Tokyo) last out but also finished in second place missing the top by half a length.
The Japan Cup was won three times wire to wire - Katsuragi Ace in the inaugural race in 1984, Tap Dance City in 2003 and Kitasan Black in 2016.
Like last year, the Japan Cup will once again have a post time of 3:40 p.m., but the race will be, not the usual 11th, but the 12th and final race on the Tokyo Sunday card.
The following horses are expected to be the popular choices on Sunday.
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Calandagan - Calandagan, the fourth horse bred by the Aga Khan Studs to be named Horse of the Year by Cartier, is trained by the France-based Francis-Henri Graffard. In his 13 career starts (all but three at the graded level), the 4-year-old gelding has never figured out of the top three and he’s dropping in to Tokyo on a G1 hat-trick. The son of Gleneagles won both the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champion Stakes this year to become only the second horse to claim both events in the same season. He also won the top-level Grand Prix de Saint Cloud in France. Calandagan flew in to Narita accompanied by his travel mate Le Nomade on Nov. 2０, and the pair was immediately transferred to the international stables at Tokyo Racecourse. “It took us 27 hours to get here from our stables via Frankfurt and the horse’s condition is no different from when he was at home,” says groom and rider Jeremy Lobel. Calandagan is said to be training calmly with his stablemate, quickly acclimatizing to the new environment, eating well, and maintaining his weight. If Calandagan can win on Sunday he will be only the second France-based horse to do so, the first since Le Glorieux in 1987.
Masquerade Ball -- Second in the ratings among the home team at 121 points, Masquerade Ball returned to the track following his second to Croix du Nord in the Japanese Derby to clinch the Tenno Sho (Autumn) on Nov. 2, his first top-level victory after three previous attempts. Racing in the Tenno Sho under new partner Christophe Lemaire, a master of timing, particularly over the Tokyo straight, the Duramente 4-year-old broke sharply and prevailed despite the drop in pace down the backstretch. Lemaire later admitted he had been worried at the time, thinking the colt may not have the turn of foot needed for the final drive. Masquerade Ball came through, topping this year’s Grade 1 Satsuki Sho winner Museum Mile by 3/4 length for the win. His four wins from seven starts have all come over left-handed tracks, three of them at Tokyo, and all at 1,800-2,000 meters. The extra 2 furlongs could be a concern, though trainer Takahisa Tezuka, who has yet to win the Japan Cup, thinks otherwise, “I don’t believe the race conditions pose any problems, but there is little time between races, so the horse’s mental state does concern me somewhat. I’ll be paying close attention to that during his preparation.” The last three Tenno Sho (Autumn) winners to follow that race with the JC have all won, Almond Eye in 2020, Equinox in 2023 and Do Deuce last year. Lemaire is expected up.
Croix du Nord - On a par and one of the biggest threats to Masquerade Ball is the Kitasan Black colt Croix du Nord. Back from an unfortunate result in the Arc, this stunning black colt has claimed two G1s at home, the Hopeful Stakes for 2-year-olds at yearend and the Japanese Derby this spring. He also ran second in the classic Satsuki Sho and had won his Arc prep only 2 weeks earlier, the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp on Sept. 14. He encountered heavy ground for the first time in both races. With little or no rain in sight in the days leading up to the Japan Cup, Croix du Nord should pose a real threat. That said, it’s a tough rotation for a 3-year-old, even one that handled with aplomb 2 kg more in the Prince d’Orange than he’ll carry in the Japan Cup. Trainer Takashi Saito says, “He had a tough run in the Arc, with the outside draw and, not being able to move inside, he was pulling at the bit. The horse he’d beat in the prep won, so I don’t think the loss was due to a lack of ability.”
Danon Decile - Top-rated of the Japanese horses at 125 points is 2024 Japanese Derby Danon Decile, who surprised as ninth pick when he won the Derby, the first G1 of his career. He surprised largely due to being an unknown whom Norihiro Yokoyama had pulled from the Satsuki Sho first classic just moments before the start when he sensed something amiss with the colt’s gait in the warmup. After his Derby win, the son of 2014 JC winner Epiphaneia lost some momentum, with a 6-3 result from the Kikuka Sho and Arima Kinen. This year he started off with a Grade 2 win over the Nakayama 2,200 in late January, then scored the Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410 meters at the Meydan in April. The race was especially significant as he topped Calandagan by a length and a quarter, with both horses carrying 57 kg. Next out in August in the Grade 1 International Stakes at York, his finish only one off the rear in a field of six failed to surprise given his assigned weight of 61 kg, 3 kg than he’d ever carried. Trainer Shogo Yasuda says of that race, “There was a pacemaker, so this horse raced in second position. He was quite excited and his breathing came hard, which made for a difficult race. The race didn’t take much out of him, so given the intense summer heat here, I let him spend the summer in England. We haven’t had any troubles since returning to Japan.”
Tastiera - Winner of the 2023 Japanese Derby, the now 5-year-old Tastiera finally found the winner’s circle again seven starts later, over 2,000 meters in April at Sha Tin with a win of the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup under Damian Lane. After returning to Japan, however, he disappointed in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) as race second pick with an eighth-place finish, also under Lane. Trainer Noriyuki Hori, who has yet to win the Japan Cup and will field three runners in the race Sunday, blames the poor showing on what he considers a tactical error. “The pace was slow but the main reason for the poor result was the jockey making a move in the fastest lap over a course with a hill. Any horse would have stalled.” Since then, Tastiera has been reported doing fine, with no signs of the DDSP (a displacement of the soft palate resulting in airway obstruction) that had plagued him earlier. With two wins and two seconds in G1 company, Tastiera is not to be dismissed.
Durezza - Following a late debut, Durezza slid in to the 2023 Grade 1 Kikuka Sho winner’s circle on a five-race winning streak. But since then, first place has eluded him. After returning from England and a fifth in the International Stakes, Durezza returned to Japan and scored second in a deadheat with Shin Emperor in last year’s Japan Cup. Returning in April, he scored a third place in the Dubai Sheema Classic, finishing behind Calandagan for the second time outside of Japan. He then missed the board in his next two outings, the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen and, most recently, the Grade 2 Kyoto Daishoten，where he’d posted a 10 kg gain. Trainer Tomohito Ozeki says, “His last outing has improved him and he’s lean now. This will be his third time competing against Calandagan and since he has finished ahead of him, I’m looking for him to turn the tables on his home turf.”
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Others to watch are:
Justin Palace, winner of the 2023 Tenno Sho (Spring) and fifth here last year under Cristian Demuro, is just off a third in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), preceded by a third in the Takarazuka Kinen 5 months ago. With Demuro expected up again, this pair could make the money this time out.
Shin Emperor may have a tough time bettering his second here last year, especially since he has just returned from Leopardstown. After battling a respiratory illness, he is, however, reported to be back on his feet and a hard workout Nov. 19 revealed no signs of fatigue.
Deep Monster, just off a win of the Kyoto Daishoten, his first victory in 2 years, is looking good in work and may be able to ride a wave that has put him on the board for his past four outings (all at the graded level), in the money for three. Horses that have won the Kyoto Daishoten immediately previous to the JC have followed up with a win in the Japan Cup three times over the past decade.
The 4-year-old gray Admire Terra, fielded by last year’s JC winning trainer Yasuo Tomomichi, was fourth in the Kyoto Daishoten 0.3 seconds behind Deep Monster and had preceded that with a win over the Tokyo 2,400 in the Grade 2 Meguro Kinen 5 months earlier on Derby Day.
