Do Deuce, who secured his fifth G1 victory in the Japan Cup in 2024, was named JRA’s Horse of the Year in the same year. Equinox, who won the Japan Cup in 2023 and thereby achieved the remarkable feat of six consecutive G1 victories (including overseas G1s) was similarly voted JRA’s Horse of the Year in the same year. In other words, the Japan Cup is a closely watched race that brings together the leading runners from Japan and abroad to compete for the title of top active runner. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 26 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 5th favorite or higher. Conversely, runners that had been backed as 11th favorite or lower were all beaten to 4th or lower. Incidentally, runners backed as 9th and 10th favorites have produced zero Top 3 finishers since 2015, so we should raise our expectations of highly favored runners. [Table 1]
| Favoritism | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st favorite | 6-1-2-1 | 60.0% | 70.0% | 90.0% |
| 2nd favorite | 0-3-3-4 | 0% | 30.0% | 60.0% |
| 3rd favorite | 2-1-1-6 | 20.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% |
| 4th favorite | 1-1-1-7 | 10.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% |
| 5th favorite | 1-2-1-6 | 10.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% |
| 6th-10th favorite | 0-3-1-46 | 0% | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| 11th favorite or lower | 0-0-0-64 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that all 30 Top 3 finishers were aged 5 or below. This year, therefore, we should once again focus on the relatively younger runners. [Table 2]
| Age | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1-5-2-15 | 4.3% | 26.1% | 34.8% |
| 4 | 4-4-4-37 | 8.2% | 16.3% | 24.5% |
| 5 | 5-2-3-32 | 11.9% | 16.7% | 23.8% |
| 6 or above | 0-0-0-50 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that 19 of the 30 Top 3 finishers started in Brackets 1-3. This suggests that runners starting in the inner brackets have an advantage in the race. [Table 3]
| Bracket number | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5-3-1-7 | 31.3% | 50.0% | 56.3% |
| 2 | 1-0-4-13 | 5.6% | 5.6% | 27.8% |
| 3 | 3-1-1-15 | 15.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| 4 | 0-2-0-18 | 0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 5 | 0-2-0-18 | 0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 6 | 0-2-0-18 | 0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 7 | 1-1-1-21 | 4.2% | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| 8 | 0-0-2-24 | 0% | 0% | 7.7% |
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that 14 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had won their previous race, with this group achieving an excellent Top 3 ratio of 37.8%. In other words, runners coming off a win in their most recent race should be regarded as strong contenders. [Table 4]
| Finish in previous race | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] |
Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6-4-4-23 | 16.2% | 27.0% | 37.8% |
| 2nd | 1-1-0-19 | 4.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 3rd | 1-1-1-5 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| 4th | 1-1-1-18 | 4.8% | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| 5th | 0-2-1-9 | 0% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| 6th-10th | 1-0-2-34 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 8.1% |
| 11th or lower | 0-2-0-26 | 0% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
The last nine winners had all previously contested the Kyoto Daishoten, the Shuka Sho, or the Tenno Sho (Autumn). This suggests that we should again look for runners coming from these three races this year. Other shared features among the nine winners were that they were all aged 5 or below, and that they started in Brackets 1-3 in the Japan Cup. We should therefore narrow down our choices while taking these factors into account. [Table 5]
| Year | Winner | Previous race | Age | Bracket number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Kitasan Black | Kyoto Daishoten | 4 | 1 |
| 2017 | Cheval Grand | Kyoto Daishoten | 5 | 1 |
| 2018 | Almond Eye | Shuka Sho | 3 | 1 |
| 2019 | Suave Richard | Tenno Sho (Autumn) | 5 | 3 |
| 2020 | Almond Eye | Tenno Sho (Autumn) | 5 | 2 |
| 2021 | Contrail | Tenno Sho (Autumn) | 4 | 1 |
| 2022 | Vela Azul | Kyoto Daishoten | 5 | 3 |
| 2023 | Equinox | Tenno Sho (Autumn) | 4 | 1 |
| 2024 | Do Deuce | Tenno Sho (Autumn) | 5 | 3 |
