Copa Republica Argentina (G2) - Data Analysis

Contested by runners aiming for major races
The Copa Republica Argentina is a turf race run over a distance of 2,500m at Tokyo Racecourse, and it is contested by runners that have their sights set on the Japan Cup and/or the Arima Kinen (Grand Prix). Because this is a handicap race, our focus in this race should not only be on runners that have performed well in graded races, but also on those that have only recently won at the allowance class level. In 2015, Gold Actor secured his first graded-race victory in this race after consecutively winning the 3-win and 4-win class, and went on to take the crown in the Arima Kinen. Let’s now analyze some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Trend in performance by age
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that 4-year-olds have been strong performers. The five 3-year-olds that have entered the race produced last year’s winner Suave Richard and three third-place finishers, for a Top 3 ratio of 80.0%. Among runners aged 5 and above, 6-year-olds produced two winners, while 5-year-olds delivered four runners-up and only one winner, dating back to Tosho Knight in 2006. Runners aged 7 and above have continued to struggle without any Top 3 finishes over the last 10 years. [Table 1]

Win odds also linked to performance
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of win odds, we find that runners backed by win odds of 3.9 or lower have produced five winners but zero runners-up, which is an interesting statistic. Conversely, runners backed by win odds in the 4.0-6.9 range have delivered six runners-up, and all runners-up over the last 10 years were backed by win odds in the 4.0-19.9 range. In addition, the 80 runners that were backed by win odds of 30 or higher produced zero Top 2 finishers and only one third-place finisher. [Table 2]

Check performance by carrying weight
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their carrying weight, we find that horses carrying 54kg or less delivered only two Top 2 finishers. The majority of the horses finishing in the Top 3 carried 55kg or more. [Table 3]

Check performance in same-year handicap race
In nine of the last 10 Copa Republica Argentina races (2008 being the exception), at least one of the Top 2 finishers had all “achieved a Top 5 finish in a graded handicap race held in the same year.” If any of this year’s runners come with this kind of experience, it would be a good idea to check them out. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Last three winners had all finished in the Top 2 of a 2,400m turf race until four races back
The last three winners of the Copa Republica Argentina had finished in the Top 2 of a 2,400m turf race until four races back. If any of this year’s runners come with this kind of track record, we should check them out. [Table 5]

(Yasunori Asano)