Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

Three-year-old fillies compete to become “cherry blossom” champion at Hanshin mile
The classic races kick off again with the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) this year. In the four years from 2015, the only race favorite to finish in the Top 2 was last year’s runner-up Lucky Lilac. The race has been difficult to predict in recent years, with 8th favorite Reine Minoru triumphing in 2017, and 7th favorite Culminar finishing as runner-up in 2015. Let’s now analyze some trends in this first fillies classic based on results over the last 10 years.

Strong performance by runners that did not suffer major defeats in recent races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of lowest finish within their last three outings, we observe that 17 of the 20 Top 2 finishers had a lowest finish of 4th or higher within their previous three races. However, we also note that runners that finished 1st in their last three races (no defeats in previous three races), have not produced a winner in the Oka Sho since Buena Vista in 2009. Incidentally, runners with a lowest finish of 6th to 9th in their previous three outings have produced one winner in the Oka Sho, namely Ayusan in 2013 (lowest finish of 7th in last-but-one race). However, that 7th finish was achieved in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. [Table 1]

Watch runners backed as favorites in recent turf 1,600m race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in a turf 1,600m race within their last two outings, we find that 17 of the 20 Top 2 finishers were among the Top 2 favorites in such a race. Runners that were backed as 6th favorite or lower in a turf 1,600m race within their last two outings and those that did not enter such a race have produced zero Top 2 finishers. This suggests we should focus on runners that have entered a turf 1,600m race within their last two outings and were among the Top 2 favorites in that race. [Table 2]

Check time difference with runner-up in first victory
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the time difference with the runner-up in their first victory, we find that all 10 winners had notched their first win 0.2-0.9s ahead of the runner-up. Moreover, the time difference was 0.3s or more for the seven consecutive winners since 2012. In addition, eight of the 10 runners-up also pulled off their first victory with a 0.2-0.9s time difference with the runner-up. For this year’s runners, it would be a good idea to check the time difference with the runner-up in their first victory. [Table 3]

Runners backed as favorites in debut race are strong performers
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their debut race, we observe that all 10 winners were among the Top 3 favorites in their debut race. This condition also applied to 19 of the 20 Top 2 finishers. Runners that were backed as 5th or lower in their debut race, were all beaten to 4th or lower. In other words, we should not overlook runners that were highly favored in their debut race. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check race that follows first victory
Looking at performances of the winners over the last 10 years in terms of the race they contested following their first victory and their finish in that race, we observe that nine winners (excluding Apapane in 2010) contested a graded race and finished in the Top 3 of that race. For this year’s runners, we should check the type of race contested following their first victory and their finish in that race. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)