Osaka Hai (G1) - Data Analysis

Older horses seeking title of spring middle-distance champion converge at Hanshin Racecourse
The Osaka Hai was elevated to G1 status in 2017, and in its inaugural year as a G1 race was won by race favorite Kitasan Black. However, last year’s race ended in an upset, with 8th favorite Potager securing the victory. This year, the big question is whether one of the fancied runners will live up to expectations, or whether a dark horse will once again snatch the spoils. Let’s now analyze some trends in this race based on results in the six years since its upgrade to G1 status.

Focus on runners coming from G2 races
Looking at performances over the last six years in terms of previous race, we find that 12 of the 18 Top 3 finishers had contested a same-year G2 race (the Kinko Sho, Nakayama Kinen, or Kyoto Kinen) last time out. Runners coming from the Kinko Sho produced the highest number of Top 3 finishers and also three winners including the aforementioned Potager and 2019 winner Al Ain (9th favorite). Meanwhile, four of the six runners coming from the G1 Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) were backed as 2nd favorite or higher. This group included race favorites Efforia in 2022 (finished 9th) and Blast Onepiece (finished 6th), which both failed to live up to expectations. We should therefore not expect too much from runners coming from the Arima Kinen. [Table 1]

Runners aged 6 or above struggle, fillies and mares perform well
Looking at performances over the last six years in terms of age, we note that 17 of the 18 Top 3 finishers were 4-year-olds or 5-year-olds. Staphanos was the only runner aged 6 or above to finish in the Top 2, in 2017. We should therefore consider that this year’s race may also be decided between 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds. [Table 2]

By gender, fillies/mares achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 44.4%. Since 2020, when two fillies/mares entered the race and finished 1st and 2nd, fillies/mares have finished in the Top 2 of the Osaka Hai for three consecutive years. This suggests we should closely watch fillies/mares in this year’s lineup. [Table 3]

Track record in G1 races speaks volumes
Of the 18 Top 3 finishers in the last six years, 14 had finished in the Top 3 of a JRA G1 turf race run over a distance of 2,000m+ in the previous year. Runners in this group were not necessarily backed by high favoritism in the Osaka Hai, as those backed as 6th to 9th favorite also delivered favorable performance of [1-3-0-3] (Top 3 ratio of 57.1%). In other words, the track record in G1 races is a valuable indicator of performance in the Osaka Hai, which brings together top talent in medium-distance races. [Table 4]

Watch performance in turf races held at Hanshin Racecourse
Of the 18 Top 3 finishers in the last six years, 14 had achieved a Top 3 ratio of 75.0% or higher in turf races held at Hanshin Racecourse. In particular, five of the six winners had a Top 3 ratio of 100% in such races, showing excellent course aptitude. Meanwhile, runners with a Top 3 ratio of less than 75.0% in such races or runners with no experience of contesting a turf race held at Hanshin Racecourse had fairly low success ratios. It would therefore seem a good idea to sharply lower our expectations of such runners. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Check affiliation alongside favoritism and finish in previous race
As illustrated in Table 2, the last six winners were all 4-year-olds or 5-year-olds. In addition, they were all based at Ritto Training Center, so we should first narrow down our selection by age and affiliation. Other shared features among the last six winners were a high Top 3 ratio in turf races held at Hanshin Racecourse (discussed in the previous paragraph), and the fact that they were all backed as 4th favorite and finished in the Top 5 of their previous race. By looking for runners that fulfill all these conditions, we should be able to further reduce the number of likely win contenders. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)