Yasuda Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Mile champion decider that brings together diverse group of runners
The Yasuda Kinen is regarded as the mile champion decider of the spring season, concluding five consecutive weeks of top-level action at Tokyo Racecourse. The G1 contest brings together a diverse group of runners coming from mile races, sprint races, middle-distance races, and fillies-and-mares-only race, and even attracts three-year-olds. Which runner will rise to the top in this mile champion decider of the spring season? Below, we analyze the data for the last 10 years.

Runners starting in the outer brackets fare well
In the Yasuda Kinen over the last 10 years, runners starting in Brackets 5-8 enjoyed higher success ratios than those starting in Brackets 1-4. Runners starting in Brackets 5 and 7 delivered strong performance of [4-1-0-15] and [4-1-2-16], respectively, a strong showing unaffected by favoritism. Conversely, the Top 3 finishers that started in Brackets 1-4 were all backed as 5th favorite or higher. [Table 1]

Strong performance by fillies/mares
Despite entering the race in smaller numbers, fillies/mares have enjoyed strong success ratios, including a Top 3 ratio of 38.9%. Over the last five years, in particular, they achieved a Top 3 ratio of over 50% with two wins, four runners-up and a third, delivering five consecutive Top 2 finishers, including 2022 winner Songline. If this year’s field includes fillies/mares, we should check them out. [Table 2]

Runners coming from a G1 race have a slight edge
One characteristic of the Yasuda Kinen is that runners with a wide range of backgrounds have all performed well in this race. However, runners coming from a G1 race appear to have had a slight edge in terms of the Top 3 ratio. In particular, runners that had previously contested a G1 race and finished in the Top 5 of that race achieved three wins, four runners-up and two thirds, with a Top 3 ratio of 30%, and consistently finished in the Top 2 over the last five years. In addition, runners that had won an overseas G1 race last time out achieved performance of a win, a runner-up and a third, with a high Top 3 ratio of 50%. [Table 3]

Focus on runners whose dam was sired by Storm Cat
Runners whose dam was sired by Storm Cat have fared well in the Yasuda Kinen. Over the last 10 years, runners in this group have produced three winners, while descendants of Hennessy (also sired by Storm Cat) produced one winner. In addition, runners whose dam was sired by Sadler’s Wells have exhibited a strong affinity with the race, while runners whose dam was sired by Carnegie produced one winner. Although not included in the table below, runners whose dam was sired by Soldier Hollow delivered one runner-up and one third-place finisher. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on four- and five-year-olds that have won a 1,600-1,800m graded turf race at Tokyo Racecourse
All Top 3 finishers over the last five years were aged 5 or below. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, we should discount runners aged 6 or above. In addition, the last four winners had experience of winning a 1,600-1,800m graded turf race at Tokyo Racecourse. We should use this information to narrow down win contenders, while also taking into account the data presented in the previous paragraphs. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)