Data Analysis for the 2016 February Stakes (G1)

Sparks are sure to fly in this top February contest at Tokyo Racecourse

The February Stakes comes two and a half months after the Champions Cup, held at Chukyo Racecourse last December. But while many runners from the Champions Cup try their luck again here, newcomers with strong recent form are often seen contesting the higher placings. This G1 race demands both speed and latent energy, and should again provide a dazzling spectacle this year. Let’s now check trends in this race from data over the last 10 years.

Check performances by win odds

If we take a look first at the runners’ aggregate performances by win odds over the last 10 years, we find that all but one of the horses backed by odds of “2.9 or less” have finished in the Top 3, the one exception being Transcend in 2012 (win odds 1.5, finished 7th). The next best odds are in the “3.0-6.9” range, with a Top 3 ratio of 60.0% – more proof that highly favored horses perform well here. By contrast, no horse backed by odds of “7.0-9.9” has finished in the Top 2, while those in the “10.0-19.9” range have produced 4 runner-ups but have still tended to struggle. In light of which, the fact that four Top 3 finishers including two winners were backed with odds of “20.0-29.9” should be worth noting. [Table 1]

No winners from “middle” brackets

The February Stakes is contested by 16 horses every year (except 2010, when one runner scratched), and if we look at the performance by bracket number over the last 10 years, every winner has been in brackets “1-2” or “6-8.” No horse in the middle brackets “3-5” has finished higher than 2nd. [Table 2]

Previous race also needs a look

Turning next to performances by the runners’ previous outings over the last 10 years, those coming straight from the “Champions Cup” (including the years up to 2013, when it was called the Japan Cup Dirt) have a strong record of success. Those coming from big local races, i.e. the “Kawasaki Kinen” (Kawasaki) and “Tokyo Daishoten” (Oi), have also performed well. By contrast, horses most recently seen in “JRA dirt graded races held in Kanto (Tokyo/Nakayama Racecourses) since the turn of the year” leave something to be desired. There have been 58 runners in this category over the last 10 years, of which all but two (the 2012 winner and runner-up, both coming straight from the Negishi Stakes) have been beaten to 3rd or lower. [Table 3]

Look for a Top 3 finish last time out

Viewing performances by finish in the previous race over the last 10 years, the majority of Top 3 finishers in the February Stakes turn out to have done the same last time out; those beaten to 4th or lower have struggled, as their success ratios show. Actually, three horses finishing “5th” in their previous outing have enjoyed a Top 3 finish, but a feature shared by all three is that they won the previous year’s Mile Championship Nambu Hai  (Morioka). Meanwhile, last year’s 3rd-place finisher Best Warrior had been beaten to 11th in his previous race (Champions Cup), but had also won the previous year’s Mile Championship Nambu Hai. [Table 4]

Last fall's results could be key

In each of the last 10 years, at least one horse with “a Top 3 finish in G1 or top-level NAR races in the previous October-November” has finished in the Top 2 in the February Stakes. This year, too, it would be advisable to check each runner’s results from last fall and consider backing horses that vied for the top places in big races last October and November. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Last three winners also had big wins in recent graded races

In each of the last 3 years, the February Stakes has been won by a horse that “won a graded race by at least 3 lengths within its last 3 outings.” It seems we should also be looking out for strong wins in recent races. [Table 6]

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)