Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) (G1) - Data Analysis

3-year-olds face new challenge in final chapter of classic Triple Crown

The Kikuka Sho, a 3,000m turf race, is run over a distance unknown to any of the runners. As such, their individual aptitude for distance is key. In eight of the last 10 years, runners backed as 5th favorite or lower have finished in the Top 2, underlining the very real possibility of a dark horse taking the spoils in this race. Meanwhile, for horses that were unable to compete in the spring classics but have risen to the fore since the summer, this is the first and last chance to win a classic race. So will the winner be one of the strong performers from the spring? Or an emerging talent from the summer program? To answer that, let’s now analyze trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Check performances by favoritism to win

If we look at the aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their favoritism to win the race and their win odds, the favorites have enjoyed by far the greatest success. As for win odds, three horses have been backed by impeccable odds of less than 2.0, and all three have won the race. By contrast, the 2nd and 3rd favorites have disappointed somewhat. A notable point is that a total of 13 horses in the “4th, 5th favorite” and “6th-8th favorite” groups have finished in the Top 3, while in terms of win odds, those with odds of “10.0-19.9” have produced decent success ratios. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Also check performances in terms of the previous race

Turning next to performances in terms of the previous race over the last 10 years, 20 of the 30 Top 3 finishers in that time had most recently contested in the Kobe Shimbun Hai, a trial race. The only winner to come straight from the other trial race – the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen – was Kitasan Black last year. And the only winner previously seen in races other than these was Three Rolls in 2009 (previous race: Nowaki Tokubetsu, an allowance race). [Table 3]

If we go on to examine the performances of horses last seen in the Kobe Shimbun Hai in terms of their finish in that race, we find that 16 of the 20 Top 3 finishers in the Kikuka Sho had also finished in the Top 3 in the Kobe Shimbun Hai. A strong performance in the Kobe Shimbun Hai often seems to produce a good one here too. [Table 4]

Check performances by bracket number

The Kikuka Sho has been contested by 18 runners in each of the last 10 years, and a look at performances by bracket number reveals that five of the 10 winning horses were in brackets “1 or 2.” Conversely, six of the 10 runners-up started in brackets “6-8.” Incidentally, all 20 horses in bracket “4” over the last 10 years have finished 4th or lower, although this bracket produced winners 13 years ago (That’s the Plenty in 2003) and 11 years ago (Deep Impact in 2005). [Table 5]

Dominance of horses with the “same jockey”

As a long-distance turf race run over 3,000m, the Kikuka Sho could be said to demand a strong affinity between rider and horse to have any chance of success. A look at performances by jockey over the last 10 years shows that horses ridden by the same jockey as in their previous outing are overwhelmingly more successful than those with a change of rider. In fact, the last horse to win despite a change of rider was Delta Blues in 2004 (ridden by Yasunari Iwata). [Table 6]

Check for wins in races earning five million yen or less

In the Kikuka Sho, at least one horse that had “won a ‘5 million yen-or-less class (1-win class)’ within its previous five outings” has finished in the Top 2 in each of the last 10 years (except 2011, when the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favorites came home in that order). Although many strong performers in the spring program turn to open class races straight after their maiden victory, and therefore build their careers without contesting races in the 1-win class, the Kikuka Sho is noted for strong performances by horses that have made their way through the various race classes. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!

Three straight wins by horses with six or seven career starts
Horses with six or seven career starts have won the Kikuka Sho in each of the last three years. This year, too, it may be worth looking for runners that come to this race fresh, without too much race experience. [Table 8]

(Yasunori Asano)