Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1) - Data Analysis

Curtain opener for the autumn’s veteran G1 program

Last year, this race was won by the favorite, Lovely Day. Although failing to win for 12 straight years from 1988 to 1999, the favorite has prevailed four times in the last 10 years. The Tenno Sho (Autumn) raises the curtain on the medium- to long-distance G1 racing program, culminating in the Japan Cup and the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix). Let’s now look at trends in this race, based on data over the last 10 years.

Check performances by favoritism

If we look at aggregate performances over the last 10 years in terms of race favoritism, we find (as mentioned above) that the favorites have won four times, achieving high success ratios with a Top 3 ratio of 80.0%. However, the 2nd favorite has no wins and has only finished 2nd and 3rd three times each. Worse still, the 3rd favorite has never finished in the Top 2 in that time. On the other hand, it will be worth noting that the 5th favorite has won four times (Company in 2009, Eishin Flash in 2012, Just a Way in 2013, and Spielberg in 2014). [Table 1]

On the similar subject of performances by win odds, horses with odds in the 10.0-19.9 range have won four times over the last 10 years, but each of these was the 5th favorite mentioned above. [Table 2]

Check performances by horse number

In 2003, the inaugural year after the course was reopened after refurbishment work at Tokyo Racecourse in 2002, Symboli Kris S won this race after starting as horse No.18 in bracket No.8. Since then, however, no runner with horse number 15 or higher has finished in the Top 2. In fact, viewing the performance by horse number over the last 10 years in general, those with higher numbers have tended to struggle. The best success ratios belong to horse numbers “7, 8,” which have produced seven Top 3 finishers. [Table 3]

4- and 5-year-olds dominate

Turning to performances by age over the last 10 years, we find that 22 of the 30 Top 3 finishers in that time were either 4-year-olds or 5-year-olds, and horses of those ages also have better success ratios. In fact, the only 3-year-olds to win this race since the distance was shortened to 2,000m in 1984 were Bubble Gum Fellow in 1996 and Symboli Kris S in 2002. None of the fifteen 3-year-olds to enter the race has won in the last 10 years, though two have finished as runners-up and three in 3rd place. The statistics are poorer still for horses aged 6 and up, with the only Top 2 finish being provided by the 2009 winner Company (8 years old). [Table 4]

Check the runners’ previous race

Viewing performances based on the previous race over the last 10 years, runners coming straight from the Takarazuka Kinen have a good affinity here. By contrast, horses from other G1 races have failed to produce a single Top 2 finish. Of the G2 trial races, meanwhile, runners most recently seen in the Mainichi Okan have made a good account of themselves, but those from other G2 races leave something to be desired. The only runner from the Kyoto Daishoten with a Top 3 finish was last year’s winner Lovely Day, while no horse last seen in the Sankei Sho All Comers has finished in the Top 3 since Swift Current took 2nd in 2006. Incidentally, all three 3-year-olds coming straight from the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen (Japanese St. Leger Trial) and the Kobe Shimbun Hai have finished in the Top 3. It may be a good idea to bear these trends in mind. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!

Three straight wins by horses with Top 2 finishes in G3 or Open Special races within their last three outings

The last three winners of the Tenno Sho (Autumn) had all finished 1st or 2nd in a G3 or Open class race within their previous three outings. As such, these three have performed better in this G1 race than many top horses from the G1 circuit. This year, too, it will certainly be worth looking out for a runner that could continue this trend. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)