Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) - Data Analysis

A contest carrying the hopes of all racing enthusiasts
The Japanese Derby is the top showcase for Thoroughbreds born in 2014, though only 18 are invited to run. This contest for the title of “Derby winner” is naturally full of tension, and racing fans are sure to be thrilled by another high-level encounter this year. So, which of the runners will emerge as the 84th Japanese Derby winner? Let’s take a look at trends in this race, based on data from the last 10 years.

Higher favorites do better
Over the last 10 years, every winner of the Japanese Derby except Eishin Flash in 2010 (7th favorite) has been backed among the Top 3 favorites. By contrast, only three runners-up have been among the Top 3 favorites, while three horses backed as 10th favorite or lower have finished in that position. Another point to bear in mind is that six horses backed as 6th-12th favorite have finished 3rd. When analyzed by win odds, meanwhile, five of the 10 third-place finishers had odds of “10.0-29.9.” [Table 1] [Table 2]

Bracket number also affects performance
In terms of performances by bracket number over the last 10 years, five of the 10 winners started the race in “Bracket 1.” Another interesting fact is that, while eight of the 10 winners have been concentrated in “Brackets 1-3,” eight of the 10 runners-up were in “Brackets 4-8.” We might also note that “Bracket 3” and “Bracket 8” have only produced one Top 3 finisher each. Given that at least three runners from each of the other brackets have finished in the Top 3, this last statistic could be seen as worrying. [Table 3]

Check the finish and favoritism in the Satsuki Sho
Viewing performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, those most recently seen in the “Satsuki Sho” have produced the largest number of Top 3 finishers here. If we then look at the finish and favoritism of those horses in the Satsuki Sho, the majority of Top 3 finishers in the Japanese Derby had either finished “In the Top 4” or had been backed “Among the Top 4 favorites” in that race. In fact, no horse that finished “5th or lower” and was backed as “5th favorite or lower” in the Satsuki Sho last time out has broken into the Top 3 here. [Table 4] [Table 5] [Table 6]

Also look at the past racing record
Horses with “Wins in 1-win class or Open-class stakes races three to five races back” have finished in the Top 2 of the Japanese Derby in each of the last 10 years except 2008. Last year, three runners coming straight from the “Satsuki Sho” met this condition, and two of them finished in the Top 2 places. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Check favoritism and finish in the last two outings
Over the last three years, the Japanese Derby has been won by a horse that had “Finished in the Top 2 in a graded race as 3rd or 4th favorite” within its previous two outings. Given the big upset in this year’s Satsuki Sho, it could be useful to focus on data such as these. [Table 8]

(Yasunori Asano)