2017 News

May 19, 2017

RSS


Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) - Data Analysis

A contest carrying the hopes of all racing enthusiasts
The Japanese Derby is the top showcase for Thoroughbreds born in 2014, though only 18 are invited to run. This contest for the title of “Derby winner” is naturally full of tension, and racing fans are sure to be thrilled by another high-level encounter this year. So, which of the runners will emerge as the 84th Japanese Derby winner? Let’s take a look at trends in this race, based on data from the last 10 years.

Higher favorites do better
Over the last 10 years, every winner of the Japanese Derby except Eishin Flash in 2010 (7th favorite) has been backed among the Top 3 favorites. By contrast, only three runners-up have been among the Top 3 favorites, while three horses backed as 10th favorite or lower have finished in that position. Another point to bear in mind is that six horses backed as 6th-12th favorite have finished 3rd. When analyzed by win odds, meanwhile, five of the 10 third-place finishers had odds of “10.0-29.9.” [Table 1] [Table 2]

[Table 1] Performance by favoritism (last 10 years)
Favoritism Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st favorite 4-1-2-3 40.0% 50.0% 70.0%
2nd favorite 1-1-0-8 10.0% 20.0% 20.0%
3rd favorite 4-1-1-4 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
4th favorite 0-0-1-9 0% 0% 10.0%
5th favorite 0-4-0-6 0% 40.0% 40.0%
6th or 7th favorite 1-0-2-17 5.0% 5.0% 15.0%
8th or 9th favorite 0-0-3-17 0% 0% 15.0%
10th-12th favorite 0-2-1-27 0% 6.7% 10.0%
13th favorite or lower 0-1-0-57 0% 1.7% 1.7%
[Table 2] Performance by win odds (last 10 years)
Win odds Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
3.9 or lower 4-2-2-8 25.0% 37.5% 50.0%
4.0-6.9 2-1-1-3 28.6% 42.9% 57.1%
7.0-9.9 2-1-0-11 14.3% 21.4% 21.4%
10.0-19.9 1-3-4-15 4.3% 17.4% 34.8%
20.0-29.9 0-1-1-18 0% 5.0% 10.0%
30.0-49.9 1-1-0-14 6.3% 12.5% 12.5%
50 or higher 0-1-2-79 0% 1.2% 3.7%

Bracket number also affects performance
In terms of performances by bracket number over the last 10 years, five of the 10 winners started the race in “Bracket 1.” Another interesting fact is that, while eight of the 10 winners have been concentrated in “Brackets 1-3,” eight of the 10 runners-up were in “Brackets 4-8.” We might also note that “Bracket 3” and “Bracket 8” have only produced one Top 3 finisher each. Given that at least three runners from each of the other brackets have finished in the Top 3, this last statistic could be seen as worrying. [Table 3]

[Table 3] Performance by bracket number (last 10 years)
Bracket number Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1 5-2-1-12 25.0% 35.0% 40.0%
2 2-0-3-15 10.0% 10.0% 25.0%
3 1-0-0-19 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
4 0-3-2-14 0% 15.8% 26.3%
5 1-1-1-17 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
6 0-2-1-17 0% 10.0% 15.0%
7 1-1-2-26 3.3% 6.7% 13.3%
8 0-1-0-28 0% 3.4% 3.4%

Check the finish and favoritism in the Satsuki Sho
Viewing performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, those most recently seen in the “Satsuki Sho” have produced the largest number of Top 3 finishers here. If we then look at the finish and favoritism of those horses in the Satsuki Sho, the majority of Top 3 finishers in the Japanese Derby had either finished “In the Top 4” or had been backed “Among the Top 4 favorites” in that race. In fact, no horse that finished “5th or lower” and was backed as “5th favorite or lower” in the Satsuki Sho last time out has broken into the Top 3 here. [Table 4] [Table 5] [Table 6]

[Table 4] Performance by previous race (last 10 years)
Previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Satsuki Sho 7-6-5-61 8.9% 16.5% 22.8%
Oka Sho 1-0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
NHK Mile Cup 1-1-1-28 3.2% 6.5% 9.7%
TV Tokyo Hai Aoba Sho 0-2-2-23 0% 7.4% 14.8%
Kyoto Shimbun Hai 1-1-1-19 4.5% 9.1% 13.6%
Other races 0-0-1-16 0% 0% 5.9%
[Table 5] Performance by finish in the Satsuki Sho when it was the last race (last 10 years)
Finish in Satsuki Sho Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st 2-1-2-4 22.2% 33.3% 55.6%
2nd 1-1-0-8 10.0% 20.0% 20.0%
3rd 2-1-0-5 25.0% 37.5% 37.5%
4th 1-1-1-5 12.5% 25.0% 37.5%
5th 0-0-0-5 0% 0% 0%
6th-9th 0-1-1-10 0% 8.3% 16.7%
10th or lower 1-1-1-24 3.7% 7.4% 11.1%
[Table 6] Performance by favoritism in the Satsuki Sho when it was the last race (last 10 years)
Favoritism in the Satsuki Sho Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st favorite 1-1-3-5 10.0% 20.0% 50.0%
2nd favorite 0-4-0-5 0% 44.4% 44.4%
3rd favorite 3-0-1-6 30.0% 30.0% 40.0%
4th favorite 2-1-0-4 28.6% 42.9% 42.9%
5th-9th favorite 0-0-1-16 0% 0% 5.9%
10th favorite or lower 1-0-0-25 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

Also look at the past racing record
Horses with “Wins in 1-win class or Open-class stakes races three to five races back” have finished in the Top 2 of the Japanese Derby in each of the last 10 years except 2008. Last year, three runners coming straight from the “Satsuki Sho” met this condition, and two of them finished in the Top 2 places. [Table 7]

[Table 7] Top 2 finishers with wins in 1-win class or Open-class stakes races three to five races back (last 10 years)
Year Finish Horse Race in question
2007 1st Vodka 3 races back Elfin Stakes 1st favorite
2nd Asakusa Kings 5 races back Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu 1st favorite
2009 2nd Reach the Crown 4 races back Senryo Sho 1st favorite
2010 1st Eishin Flash 3 races back Erika Sho 1st favorite
2011 2nd Win Variation 5 races back Nojigiku Stakes 2nd favorite
2012 2nd Fenomeno 3 races back 1-win class 2nd favorite
2013 1st Kizuna 5 races back Kigiku Sho 1st favorite
2nd Epiphaneia 4 races back Kyoto Nisai Stakes 1st favorite
2014 2nd Isla Bonita 4 races back Icho Stakes 3rd favorite
2015 1st Duramente 3 races back Saintpaulia Sho 1st favorite
2016 1st Makahiki 3 races back Wakagoma Stakes 1st favorite
2nd Satono Diamond 3 races back 1-win class 1st favorite

Seek out the winner!
Check favoritism and finish in the last two outings
Over the last three years, the Japanese Derby has been won by a horse that had “Finished in the Top 2 in a graded race as 3rd or 4th favorite” within its previous two outings. Given the big upset in this year’s Satsuki Sho, it could be useful to focus on data such as these. [Table 8]

[Table 8] Winners’ Top 2 finishes in graded races in the previous two outings when backed as 3rd or 4th favorite (last 3 years)
Year Winning horse Race in question
2014 One and Only 2 races back Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho 4th favorite 2nd
2015 Duramente Last race Satsuki Sho 3rd favorite 1st
2016 Makahiki Last race Satsuki Sho 3rd favorite 2nd

 

(Yasunori Asano)

Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) related contents