Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

In addition, of the runners with either “5 or 6” or “7 or more” careers starts, those that had not experienced a Top 3 finish in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies struggled, achieving a Top 3 ratio of only 6.5%. In the seven years from 2011, performance for these runners was [0-0-1-69] (Top 3 ratio of 1.4%), with zero Top 2 finishers. In other words, we should probably lower our expectations of runners that have not excelled in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and have “5 or more” career starts. [Table 2]

Runners that appeared in the Tulip Sho are strong performers
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 17 contested their previous race in the “Tulip Sho”. Runners that appeared in the “Tulip Sho” achieved a Top 3 ratio of 38.6%, an excellent success ratio. This year again, we should start by focusing on runners that contested the Tulip Sho in their previous outing. [Table 3]

In addition, runners that contested a race other than the “Tulip Sho” last time out and finished “4th or lower” in that race struggled, achieving a Top 3 ratio of only 1.8%. Runners that finished “2nd” or “3rd” in such a previous race had a Top 3 ratio of under 10%. Accordingly, there seems to be little prospect of top places being secured by runners that contested a race other than the “Tulip Sho” last time out and finished 2nd or lower in that race. [Table 4]

Zero Top 2 finishers among runners with horse numbers 1-5 in over 20 years
Looking at performances by horse number over the last 10 years, we find that runners with “numbers 1-5” have produced zero Top 2 finishers and only one Top 3 finisher (Contessa Thule in 2015). Incidentally, the last runner with a number between 1 and 5 to achieve a Top 2 finish was 1996 winner Fight Gulliver. Consequently, we should not expect too much from runners that start the race with numbers positioned near the inside rail. [Table 5]

Check runners with success in Tokyo, Kyoto, or Hanshin races
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 25 experienced a Top 2 finish in an “open-class race held at the Tokyo, Kyoto, or Hanshin Racecourse”. Conversely, runners without such experience had a Top 3 ratio of only 6.3%, and in the seven years since 2011, such runners were unable to rise to the top with performance of [0-0-0-54]. In other words, we should focus on runners with a favorable track record in one of the four big racecourses other than Nakayama. [Table 6]

In addition, the 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years all experienced a Top 2 finish in an “open-class race held at the Tokyo, Kyoto, or Hanshin Racecourse” in which they passed the 4th corner in 5th or lower position. This means that we may need to lower our expectations of runners that experienced a Top 2 finish in an “open-class race held at the Tokyo, Kyoto, or Hanshin Racecourse” but only achieved such success after taking a front position. [Table 7]

Runners that suffered defeats in non-graded races struggle in recent years
Of the 15 Top 3 finishers in the last five years, 12 runners were never beaten to 2nd or lower position in races other than JRA graded races. Conversely, runners that had suffered such defeats struggled, achieving a Top 3 ratio of only 5.3%. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, we may have to lower our expectations of runners who have been defeated in non-graded races. [Table 8]

Seek out the winner!
Winners in last five years previously had entered only newcomer and graded races
The five last winners were all runners that had never suffered defeats in races other than JRA graded races and whose total career record in such races was “one start, one win” (i.e., newcomer in debut outing). In other words, the five recent winners did not even have experience other than newcomer and graded races. If any of this year’s runners meet these criteria (win in debut race followed by appearances only in graded races), it would be wise to take a closer look. Moreover, the five last winners also had the following characteristics in common: (1) “6 or fewer” total career starts, (2) horse numbers 6-18, and (3) Top 2 experience in graded race held at the Tokyo, Kyoto, or Hanshin Racecourses after passing the 4th corner in 5th or lower position. In other words, we should also focus on the trends shown in [Table 1], [Table 5], and [Table 7]. [Table 9]

(Masaya Ibuki)