Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) - Preview

Stelvio

Wagnerian

Time Flyer

Kitano Commandeur

Oken Moon

Generale Uno

After 3-year-old filly Almond Eye carried off the Grade 1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) in some style last Sunday at Hanshin Racecourse, top level horseracing action in Japan switches to the east of the country this coming weekend, when Nakayama Racecourse offers up a couple of big races, namely the Nakayama Grand Jump steeplechase on Saturday, April 14, and the Grade 1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) on Sunday, April 15. The latter is the first leg of the Triple Crown, and is run on turf at the right-handed Nakayama course over 2,000 meters on the inner track, with the start just in front of the stands.

The race was first run in 1939, and with no races in 1945 and 1946, this year sees the 78th running of the Satsuki Sho. Step races on the way this year have included the Grade 2 Fuji TV Sho Spring Stakes over 1,800 meters at Nakayama, Grade 2 Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho over 2,000 meters, also at Nakayama (both races are official Guineas trials), and the Open Class Wakaba Stakes over 2,000 meters at Hanshin. All those races were run in March.

There have been 17 nominations for the colts’ Classic, but one absentee on Sunday, to most people’s regret, is the unbeaten colt Danon Premium. News last week that the horse has a stone bruise affecting his right foreleg means he has to skip the race, but hopefully will have the Derby as his future target. But it’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good, and the Deep Impact colt’s absence means things will be conducted on a more level playing field this Sunday. Twenty three Satsuki Sho winners have gone on to win the Derby, the latest to do so was Duramente in 2015. Record times for the race have been tumbling in recent years, and the current record of 1 minute, 57.8 seconds was set just last year when Al Ain won the race. Only two first favorites have won in the last 10 years, so whatever starts favorite on Sunday would seem to be up against it.

The Satsuki Sho will be Race 11 on the card at Nakayama on Sunday, with a post time of 15.40 local time. Here’s a look at some of the candidates with a chance of carrying off the ¥110 million winner’s check:

Stelvio: Lord Kanaloa is proving a big hit as a sire, and Stelvio is another of his offspring already proving that. The colt is three wins and two seconds from five starts, and in his only run as a 3-year-old, he ran out the winner of the Grade 2 Fuji TV Sho Spring Stakes over 1,800 meters at Nakayama last month. Adding this to his second in last year’s Grade 1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes seems to put him on a high level already. Jockey Christophe Lemaire will be keen to add this race to his glittering CV, as he has yet to win this Grade 1. Trainer Tetsuya Kimura is looking for his first Grade 1 win, so perhaps it’s all written in the stars for Stelvio here. The trainer commented: “Even though it was a narrow win last time in the Spring Stakes, I felt it was a big win because I wasn’t sure the adjustment in training would lead to him winning over 1,800 meters, but it did.”

Wagnerian: The Northern Farm bred colt had three straight wins as a 2-year-old, and then came out and finished second to Danon Premium in his one run this year in the Grade 2 Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho over 2,000 meters at Nakayama in March. Jockey Yuichi Fukunaga has ridden him in all of his races so far and looks set to take the ride this time as well. Wagnerian’s trainer, Yasuo Tomomichi, commented: “Two starts ago he was very tense when he travelled over to Tokyo. Last start too he got worked up, but in the paddock and on the way to post, the jockey said it was the best he’d been so far. Since that last race, there was no damage and things have gone according to plan with his training.”

Time Flyer: The colt by Heart’s Cry already boasts a Grade 1 win when claiming the Hopeful Stakes at the end of last year, when given a great ride by Christian Demuro. Trainer Kunihide Matsuda wanted to use that race to see how the horse would run over the course and distance of the Satsuki Sho. Even though the colt was fifth in the Wakaba Stakes most recently, the trainer knows what he’s capable of. “He was slightly unlucky last time, taking a bump at the start. This and the slow pace didn’t help, and as he takes just a little time to get switched on, he couldn’t manage to finish any closer. He’s recovered from that race, and has got his appetite back,” Matsuda said.

Kitano Commandeur: The ¥205 million purchase at the 2016 Select Sale runs in the DMM Dream Club ownership colors, and the colt by Deep Impact has won both his starts so far. His latest win came in the Open Class Sumire Stakes over 2,200 meters in February at Hanshin. While still immature, the owners will be hoping for bigger and better things from Kitano Commandeur. Trainer Yasutoshi Ikee commented: “His muscles are soft, which hides the rather stiff way he has of walking due to his posture. He’s been out at the farm, and in work he put in on March 29, his breathing was a bit heavy, but that’s to be expected, and after a couple more pieces of work I’m sure he’ll be better.” It looks like another challenging ride for jockey Mirco Demuro, who has won the Satsuki Sho four times.

Oken Moon: The colt by Oken Bruce Lee won at Nakayama in January over 2,000 meters, and has since won the Grade 3 Kyodo News Hai over 1,800 meters at Tokyo in February. Jockey Hiroshi Kitamura has ridden him in all of his races and is scheduled to partner him on Sunday again. Trainer Sakae Kunieda, who trains Oka Sho winner, Almond Eye, commented on Oken Moon: “I didn’t think he looked so good last time, and his movement wasn’t so good, but he still got a good result. Since then he’s been at the farm, and he’s looking a lot better now.”

Aithon: It’s three wins from six starts for Aithon, and it’s been two runaway wins over 2,000 meters so far in 2018, the latest in the Open Class Wakaba Stakes in March. Trainer Tadao Igarashi said, “The three races that he’s won have all been by him getting to the front and managing to stay there. It seems this is going to be the best way for him, to dictate a race at his own pace.”