Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

First leg of Triple Crown promises fierce battle between top three-year-olds of current generation
After winning the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in 2019, Saturnalia was voted the Best Three-Year-Old Colt in the JRA Awards of the same year. Since 2010, six (over half) of the 10 runners that were awarded the title of Best Three-Year-Old Colt in the JRA Awards had previously won the Satsuki Sho. In addition, among the 36 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winners since 1984 (when the grading system was introduced), only eight had not appeared in the Satsuki Sho. In other words, this race not only marks the first leg of the classic Triple Crown, but also influences subsequent general trends in the racing program. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2011 race held at Tokyo Racecourse.

Check track record since end of previous year
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 23 had experience of finishing “1st” in “a JRA, open-class, turf 1,600–2,000m race held since late December of the previous year.” Conversely, runners with a highest finish of 5th or lower in such a race, and those that had not entered such a race, were all beaten to 4th or lower. This suggests that we should focus on runners that have performed well in the Hopeful Stakes held on December 28, 2019, or in any other graded, open-class, turf 1,600–2,000m race held since the start of the year. [Table 1]

Look for a strong performance last time out
Of the 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years, 19 (excluding 2018 runner-up Sans Rival) had either finished 1st in their last outing, or 2nd or lower with a time difference of 0.1s or less with the winner of that race. Conversely, runners that had finished 2nd or lower in their last outing and had a time difference of 0.2s or more with the winner of that race, struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 6.3%. In other words, we should carefully take into consideration results in recent races. [Table 2]

Watch runners with “5 or fewer” career starts
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had “5 or fewer” career starts. Conversely, runners that had “6 or more” career starts struggled with a 5.1% Top 3 ratio. In addition, if we limit our analysis to the last five years, we find that runners with “6 or more” career starts delivered performance of [0-0-0-26] (Top 3 ratio of 0%). In other words, we should expect little from runners with long careers. [Table 3]

Focus on body weight
Of the 21 Top 3 finishers over the last seven years, 17 runners had weighed in at “480kg or more” last time out. Conversely, runners that had weighed in at “less than 480kg” last time out struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 8.3%. This suggests we should lower our expectations of lighter horses. [Table 4]

In addition, among the four runners that finished in the Top 3 despite weighing in at “less than 480kg” last time out, three had won the Kyodo News Hai (Tokinominoru Kinen). In other words, among runners that weighed in at “less than 480kg” last time out, we should raise our expectations of those that have won the Kyodo News Hai, which is a race that seems to have been positively correlated to the Satsuki Sho in recent years. [Table 5]

Inner- and outermost brackets have produced little success in recent years
Looking at performance by runners over the last five years in terms of bracket number, we observe that all runners starting in bracket “1” were beaten to 4th or lower. In addition, runners starting in brackets “7” or “8” had a Top 3 ratio of only 7.7%. Up to 2014, runners starting in brackets “1,” “7,” and “8” performed reasonably well, but if trends in recent years are anything to go by, runners starting in the inner- and outermost brackets seem more likely to struggle. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
No recent winners among runners that had contested a non-graded race in their last outing
The last 10 winners had all contested a “JRA graded race” last time out. The last runner to win the Satsuki Sho after contesting a “non-JRA graded race” in his previous outing was 2007 winner Victory (previous race was open-class Wakaba Stakes). Another shared feature among the 10 winners was that they had either finished 1st in their previous race, or finished 2nd or lower with a time difference of 0.1s or less with the winner of that race. The last winner to finish 2nd or lower in his previous race with a time difference of 0.2s or more with the winner of that race, was 2008 winner Captain Thule (finished 4th in the previous race—Yayoi Sho—with a time difference of 0.4s with the winner of that race). In other words, we should focus on lead-up races and recent performance to narrow down contenders. [Table 7]

(Masaya Ibuki)