Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) - Data Analysis

2-year-old filly champion decider mainly contested by favored runners in recent years
The Hanshin Juvenile Fillies decides the 2-year-old filly champion. In the past, the race was known for upsets and even produced an all-time high payout for a G1 race (120,740 yen for Quinella bet in 1992). Since 2006, however, runners backed as 5th favorite or higher have produced all winners. This year again, the big question is whether one of the fancied runners will triumph, or whether a poorly favored runner will rise to the top for the first time in many years. Let’s now analyze the data for the last 10 years in search of the leading contenders.

Standout performances by runners with 2 career starts
Looking at performances in terms of total career starts, we find that runners with 2 career starts had by far the highest success ratios. This should be the first factor to consider when planning bets. Conversely, runners with 5 or more career starts produced zero Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years. Since this G1 race is geared toward 2-year-olds, a sizeable number of runners entering the race had previously won a newcomer race. However, runners in this group have not delivered a winner since 2011 (Joie de Vivre) or a Top 3 finisher since 2012 (Red Cecilia). In other words, they have underperformed in recent years. [Table 1]

Consider runners that were beaten in previous race, but only to 2nd place
A common trend in many graded races for 2-year-olds is that comebacks by runners that have suffered a major defeated in their previous race are extremely rare. In the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies over the last 10 years, runners that had been beaten to 6th or lower in their previous race have produced zero Top 3 finishers. Meanwhile, eight of the 10 winners had finished 1st in their previous race, with the remaining two finishing 2nd in their previous race. Over the last four years, in particular, runners that had finished either 1st or 2nd in their previous race consistently occupied the entire Top 3. If we include runners that have finished 3rd or lower in their previous race in our bets, we should consider only one of these at most. [Table 2]

Focus on runners that have contested their previous race at Tokyo Racecourse
Looking at performances in terms of the racecourse of the previous race, we observe that runners that had contested their previous race at Tokyo Racecourse enjoyed high success ratios. This suggests that runners with experience of contesting a race on a track with long homestretch and a rising slope on the straight section tend perform well. Many runners coming from a race contested at Tokyo Racecourse have enjoyed success in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies despite low favoritism, with examples including 2015 runner-up Win Fabulous (backed as 10th favorite), 2014 winner Shonan Adela (backed as 5th favorite), 2013 third-place finisher Forevermore (backed as 8th favorite), and 2012 third-place finisher Red Cecilia (backed as 10th favorite). [Table 3]

Watch runners that have contested their debut race over a distance of 1,600 meters or more
Runners that targeted major races over a distance of 1,600 meters or more from before their debut race appear to have performed well, and those that had contested their debut race over such a distance achieved high Top 3 ratios. While 2019 winner Resistencia had contested her debut race over a distance of 1,400 meters, this marked the first Top 2 finish by a runner with such a track record since Harp Star finished as runner-up in 2013. This basically suggests that we should keep an eye on runners that have contested their debut race over a distance of 1,600 meters or more. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check record in open-class races and “closing speed” in debut race
While runners coming straight from a victory in a newcomer race or 1-win class race have historically produced many winners, the recent five winners had all notched a win in an open-special race or achieved a Top 2 finish in a graded race. In 2019, the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies saw its first win by the front-runner since 2006, when the race was moved to the outer oval turf track of Hanshin Racecourse. However, most wins in the race are secured through a final sprint from the middle or back of the pack. If we compare the last 10 winners’ estimated time over the final three furlongs in a newcomer race to gauge the closing speed, we note that their closing time was around 33 seconds in newcomer races held at Tokyo Racecourse, Hanshin Racecourse, and Niigata Racecourse (each of them has a long homestretch that contributes to a fast closing speed), and 34.0-34.4s for other racecourses. In other words, we should focus on runners that have exhibited a fast closing speed since their debut race. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)