Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

G1 race for fillies that kicks off the classic races
The Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) is the first of the Classic races that represent the pinnacle of spring racing. Three-year-old fillies will compete for the title in a mile-long race at Hanshin Racecourse. We have identified some trends in this race based on an analysis of results over the last 10 years, and present our findings below.

Race favorites in contention for top positions, but not fully reliable
Over the last 10 years, race favorites delivered five Top 3 finishers including one winner. As half of them finished 4th or lower, we should not fully place our trust in them. At the same time, however, the data does not point toward strong performances by dark horses either, with runners backed as 9th or lower only producing two Top 3 finishers. Nearly all Top 3 finishers were backed as 8th favorite or higher. We should therefore focus on runners backed as 8th or higher as win contenders, and also select other runners from the same group. [Table 1]

Focus on body weight
The 10 previous winners all weighed in at 460kg-499kg. While lighter runners of 459kg or below also delivered Top 3 finishers, some highly favored runners in this group failed to live up to expectations. Examples include 2022 race favorite Namur (426kg, beaten to 10th), 2021 3rd favorite Meikei Yell (458kg, beaten to 18th), and 2015 race favorite Rouge Buck (444kg, beaten to 9th). [Table 2]

In addition, looking at performances in terms of changes in body weight from the previous race, we find that runners coming in with a heavier weight than in their previous race performed poorly. For example, 2022 2nd favorite Circle of Life, 2019 race favorite Danon Fantasy, and 2016 race favorite Major Emblem all finished 4th. In other words, runners coming in with a heavier body weight than in their previous race have suffered defeats. [Table 3]

Top 3 finish and backing of 3rd favorite or higher in previous race are good selection criteria
The 24 Top 3 finishers, including the last 10 winners, had all finished in the Top 3 of their previous race. Six runners that had finished 4th or lower last time out also made it into the Top 3, but these had all contested the Tulip Sho in their previous race. Excluding runners coming from Tulip Sho, runners that have finished 4th or lower in their previous race are likely to struggle. [Table 4]

Looking at favoritism in the previous race, we note that runners that were backed as 3rd favorite or higher in their previous race achieved strong success ratios. Of the seven Top 3 finishers that were backed as 4th favorite or lower in their previous race, six came from the Tulip Sho. In other words, runners that have previously contested a race other than the Tulip Sho backed as 4th favorite or lower should be avoided. [Table 5]

Runners coming from a non-graded race struggle
Looking at performances by previous race, we observe that 29 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a graded race in their previous race. The only strong performer among runners coming from a non-graded race was 2020 winner Daring Tact, who had previously contested the Elfin Stakes and ultimately won the Fillies’ Triple Crown. [Table 6]

Also, when we analyze which previous graded races produced strong performers, we unsurprisingly observe that runners coming from the Tulip Sho, a trial race run over the same course, have often fared well. In addition, the smaller group of runners coming from G1 races for two-year-olds run over the same course, such as the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, also achieved high success ratios. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Shared features are high finish, high favoritism, and fast closing speed in mile-long race last time out
All but one of the last nine winners had contested a 1,600m turf race in their previous race. In addition, all nine winners had been backed as 3rd favorite or higher and finished in the Top 3 of that race. Moreover, with the exceptions of Reine Minoru (turf 1,400m race last time out) and Let’s Go Donki (muddy track last time out), all runners displayed a fast closing speed in their previous race, with an estimated time over the final three furlongs of 34.6 seconds or lower. [Table 8]

(Yodohito Himezono)