Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Two-year-olds battle for supremacy in mile race that serves an indicator of future performance
Looking back at the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes since 2014, when the race was moved to Hanshin Racecourse, we observe that 2018 winner Admire Mars went on to secure victories in the NHK Mile Cup and the Hong Kong Mile as a three-year-old, thereby notching wins in both overseas and domestic G1 races. Among the 2021 runners, winner Do Deuce dominated the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) the next spring, while runner-up Serifos, third-place finisher Danon Scorpion, and fifth-place finisher Geoglyph also triumphed in a G1 race the following year. In other words, a large number of runners that have contested the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes have enjoyed success in their later career. What trends can we expect in this race that—as its name (“futurity”) suggests—is contested by a field of promising two-year-olds? Let’s now look for some trends based on data for the last nine years during which the race was held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Top 3 often comprises two favored runners and one dark horse
While runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher were all beaten to 4th or lower in an upset in 2016, race favorites have finished in the Top 3 in eight of the last nine years (excluding 2016). During the same eight years, at least one of the runners backed as 2nd favorite or 3rd favorite also finished in the Top 3, so favored runners appear to be highly reliable contenders. However, in five of the eight years, one of the Top 3 finishers was backed as 7th favorite or lower, which means we also need to consider runners backed by poor favoritism in our selection. [Table 1]

Focus on runners coming from mile-long graded races
Looking at performances by runners over the last nine years in terms of their previous race, we find that among Top 3 finishers, seven had contested the Daily Hai Nisai Stakes in their previous race and six the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup. We should therefore keep in mind that many runners coming from a 1,600m graded turf race have fared well. [Table 2]

In addition, 2014 winner Danon Platina and 2016 winner Satono Ares, who both came straight from a 1-win class race, had contested the Begonia Sho as their previous race within the two preceding weeks, achieving success after a short race interval. Since 2017, however, runners entering the race within three weeks or less since their previous race have not produced any winners and achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 7.1%. [Table 3]

Need to discount runners that have been beaten in their previous race
The last nine winners all came to this race after notching the win in their previous race. As shown in Table 2, runners coming from a victory in the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup or Daily Hai Nisai Stakes delivered outstanding performance of [4-3-2-3], achieving a high Top 3 ratio of 75.0%. Conversely, runners that had finished 2nd or lower in either of these races delivered lackluster performance of [0-3-1-19] (Top 3 ratio of 17.4%). We should therefore lower our expectations of runners that have been defeated in their previous race. [Table 4]

Runners with 4 career starts look appealing
Looking at performances by runners over the last nine years in terms of career starts, we note that success ratios drop as the number of career starts increases. Among runners with 4 careers starts, even those backed as 6th favorite or lower did not show much of a drop in success rates with performance of [1-1-2-22] and a Top 3 ratio of 15.4%, which are interesting statistics. In addition, 2014 runner-up Arma Waioli, 2015 third-place finisher Shadow Approach, and 2016 third-place finisher Bom Servico performed well despite being backed as 10th favorite or higher, further adding to the appeal of runners with 4 career starts. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Career warrants close attention
As shown above, runners that had been beaten in their previous race and runners with 5 or more career starts have produced zero winners. Shared features among the last nine winners were that they had no experience of contesting a race with a distance below 1,400m, and that they had never been beaten to 5th or lower. If we also consider that all nine winners had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race, we should be able to narrow down likely win contenders. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)