Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) - Data Analysis

Second leg of fillies Classics that requires stamina for success
The Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) is the second leg of the Classic races for fillies contested on a 2,400m turf course at Tokyo Racecourse. It follows the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), which marks the first leg of the Classic races for fillies. In the last two years, the race has been won by runners who achieved double victories in the Classics: Stars on Earth in 2022, and Liberty Island in 2023. The question now is whether this pattern will repeat this year. Let’s now look at some trends in this race based on results for the last 10 years.

Runners coming from the Oka Sho fare well
Although unsurprising, runners coming from the Oka Sho have performed well in the race. In particular, runners with a Top 3 finish in the Oka Sho achieved a Top 3 ratio of 50% with seven wins, two seconds and two thirds, so there is really no reason to go against this trend. Other runners that have enjoyed success in the race are those coming from the Listed Wasurenagusa Sho, which is held on the same day as the Oka Sho. [Table 1]

Strong performances by runners backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race
Over the last 10 years, we observe that runners that had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race achieved high success ratios. Even among the runners in this group that suffered a defeat in their previous race, many improved their position in the Yushun Himba, including 2022 third-place finisher Namur (finished 10th in the Oka Sho while backed as 1st favorite), 2021 winner Uberleben (finished 3rd in the Sankei Sports Sho Flora Stakes [Japanese Oaks Trial] while backed as 2nd favorite), and 2017 third-place finisher Admire Miyabi (finished 12th in the Oka Sho while backed as 2nd favorite), which is worthy of note. [Table 2]

Horse weight is also important
Although racehorses have grown heavier over time, Yushun Himba contestants with a weight of 480kg or above have only produced one winner since 1986: Kawakami Princess (484kg) in 2006. We should therefore lower our expectations of runners with a weight of 480kg or above, as well as of runners with a weight under 420kg, which have rarely performed well over the last 10 years. Conversely, we find many examples of success among runners with a weight of 460kg-479kg, with runners in this group having secured consecutive victories over the last four years. [Table 3]

Check runners sired by Duramente
As we can no longer look to the offspring of Deep Impact, the legendary sire that shaped an era of horseracing, the sire to watch now for the Yushun Himba is Duramente, whose fillies Stars on Earth and Liberty Island secured consecutive victories in 2022 and 2023, respectively. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher have the edge
While the Yushun Himba has seen upsets in the past, it has mostly unfolded in line with expectations in recent years. The last 10 winners were all backed as 3rd favorite or higher. In addition, seven of the 10 winners had finished in the Top 3 of the Oka Sho. Among the three winners that had not entered the Oka Sho, two had achieved a Top 2 ratio of 100% in their overall racing career, and one had finished 3rd in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)