February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Race that kicks off the 2025 G1 program
Held at the start of the year, the February Stakes marks the first race of the G1 program. This mile-long G1 dirt race held at Tokyo Racecourse has been won by a long line of famous horses. This year, the race will once again attract elite dirt runners ready to vie for supremacy. Let’s now look for some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Stable performance by race favorites
Although race favorite Omega Guiness was beaten to 14th last year, the February Stakes is essentially a race in which we can place high confidence in the race favorite. Performances by runners backed as 2nd favorite have also certainly not fallen short, and runners backed as 2nd favorite or higher have only finished outside the Top 2 once over the last 10 years - namely, in 2024. [Table 1]

Contest between horses aged 4 to 6
While this G1 race brings together horses of various ages, looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that horses aged 4 to 6 were evenly matched in terms of achievements. Four of the five 4-year-olds that finished in the Top 3, had won a graded dirt race at Tokyo Racecourse. Among horses aged 7 or above, a group with low success ratios, those without a win in a top-level NAR dirt race, or those without multiple wins in graded races had even less success, so the data suggest we should lower our expectations of such runners. [Table 2]

Winners last time out fare well, but …
Runners that had won their previous race fared well. However, those that had been beaten to 6th or lower in their previous race should also not be overlooked. Within this group, those that had been beaten to 6th or lower in the Champions Cup delivered performance of [3-1-2-7], so we should keep in mind that runners with this profile have often pulled off a comeback. [Table 3]

Pattern in previous races of strong performers
The Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years all came from one of the nine races listed in the table below. Therefore, we should lower our expectations of runners coming from other races. The highest success ratios were achieved by runners coming from the Champions Cup, with nearly half of the runners in this group finishing in the Top 3. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Target runners with 3 or more consecutive wins
Nine of the last 10 winners had a record of 3 or more consecutive wins (the exception being 2015 winner Copano Rickey). In recent years, we note that many runners sired by horses in the Mr. Prospector line secured the victory. We should therefore focus on runners in the Mr. Prospector line with a record of 3 or more consecutive wins. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)