Tenno Sho (Spring) (G1) - Data Analysis

Race steeped in tradition that determines the long-distance race champion for older horses
In recent years, we have seen a clear trend of certain horses consistently dominating the top positions in the race over the span of several years. For example, Kitasan Black not only triumphed in 2016, but also secured a resounding victory in 2017. Fierement similarly claimed consecutive victories in 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile, Deep Bond finished as runner-up in the three years since 2021, and secured 3rd place in 2024. What other features stand out in this race? Let’s now look for some trends based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2021 and 2022 race held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Select win contenders from among highly favored runners
The last 10 winners were all backed as 3rd favorite or higher. Meanwhile, among runners finishing 2nd and 3rd, eight were backed as 6th favorite or lower, including three backed as 10th favorite or lower. We should therefore pick win contenders from among highly favored runners, and also factor in the possibility that poorly favored runners may finish 2nd or 3rd. [Table 1]

Focus on runners coming from a G2 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we find that runners coming from a G2 race accounted for just over 70% of the total runners, and that 24 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had also previously contested a G2 race. Of the 24 Top 3 finishers coming from a G2 race, 15 had contested the Hanshin Daishoten in their previous race, including Curren Mirotic, who placed in the Top 3 for two consecutive years despite being backed as 10th favorite or lower. [Table 2]

Watch runners fresh off a win
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that 15 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had triumphed in their previous race. Within this group, runners fresh off a win in the Hanshin Daishoten delivered outstanding performance of [4-2-2-1]. [Table 3]

The bulk of the Top 3 finishers had previously won a graded race  
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 had previously won a JRA graded race. The only runner to enter the Top 3 without a prior victory in a JRA graded race was 2021 3rd-place finisher Curren Bouquetd’or, but she was a proven talent, having previously secured three 2nd-place finishes in G1 races, including in the Japan Cup. The Tenno Sho (Spring) brings together the elite of the older horse division, so it is safe to assume that runners without a previous win in a graded race will not be competitive. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check performance in long-distance G1 races
Winners Kitasan Black and Fierement had both secured a prior victory in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger). Among the last 10 winners, seven had previously dominated the Kikuko Sho. The remaining three had previously finished in the Top 3 of the Kikuka Sho or Tenno Sho (Spring), and had all entered the race fresh off a win in the Hanshin Daishoten. In other words, in this showdown that crowns the best stayer in Japan, a proven track record in long-distance races is a decisive factor. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)