Shuka Sho (G1) - Data Analysis

Established and emerging runners to clash in decisive showdown during last leg of Triple Crown
Of the 29 past winners of the Shuka Sho since the race was established in 1996, 14 had won at least one of the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) or Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks)—the two other legs of the Triple Crown for three-year-old fillies. Incidentally, six runners had won both the Oka Sho and the Japanese Oaks since 1996, thus capturing the Triple Crown for three-year-old fillies: Still in Love, Apapane, Gentildonna, Almond Eye, Daring Tact, and Liberty Island. This year, Embroidery and Kamunyak respectively dominated the Oka Sho and Japanese Oaks, so the question is what kind of outcome we can expect in the Shuka Sho. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2021 and 2022 races held as 2,000m turf races at Hanshin Racecourse.

Focus on runners backed as 5th favorite or higher
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 25 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 5th favorite or higher. Meanwhile, runners backed as 11th favorite or lower produced zero Top 3 finishers, while those backed as 6th-10th favorite achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 10.0%. In other words, highly favored runners generally tend to fare well in this race. [Table 1]

Majority of Top 3 finishers had finished in Top 5 of previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that runners that had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race made up 29 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. Meanwhile, the only Top 3 finisher that had finished 6th or lower in her previous race, was third-place finisher Mozu Katchan in 2017. We should therefore focus on runners that were strong performers in their previous race. [Table 2]

Runners coming straight from Japanese Oaks have triumphed six times
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we find that runners coming from the Japanese Oaks have produced six winners and achieved a relatively strong Top 3 ratio of 38.5%. This suggests we should not view a rest period following the Japanese Oaks as a cause for concern. [Table 3]

Running position in previous race must be factored in
Looking at performances by runners in the Shuka Sho races held at Kyoto Racecourse (2015-2020, 2023, 2024) in terms of position when passing the 4th corner in the previous race, we find that 19 of the 24 Top 3 finishers had passed the 4th corner of their previous race in 5th or lower position. In other words, off-pace and stretch runners that were positioned in the middle or back of the pack when passing the 4th corner in their previous race have an edge. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Consistent victories by highly favored runners
All eight winners in the Shuka Sho races at Kyoto Racecourse (2015-2020, 2023, 2024) had finished in the Top 3 of their previous race, and had been positioned 5th or lower when passing the 4th corner in that race. Another shared feature among these eight winners was that they were backed by win odds below 7.0 in the Shuka Sho race. In other words, highly favored runners that align with the trends above—namely, finish in previous race and position when passing the 4th corner in previous race—should be regarded as leading win contenders. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)