Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

Curtain raiser for the 3-year-old G1 season
The Oka Sho tends to be a mixed bag when it comes to predictability, for while the highly-favored horses sometimes come good, there is also a history of upsets in this race. Like in 2008, when it was won by the 12th favorite Reginetta, with 15th favorite F T Maia following home as runner-up. Or in 2013, when the winner was the 7th favorite Ayusan, or 2015, when the first three past the post were the 5th, 7th and 8th favorites, in that order. So, which way will it go this year? In search of an answer, let’s first confirm some trends from results over the last 10 years, to keep in mind when making our predictions.

Check performances by win odds
Over the last 10 years, only three Oka Sho runners have been backed by solid win odds of “1.4 or lower,” and all three have finished in the Top 2. By contrast, both of the fillies backed by win odds of “1.5-1.9” have been beaten to 4th or lower (Rouge Buck, 9th in 2015, and Major Emblem, 4th in 2016). On the other hand, those in the ranges “2.0-4.9” and “5.0-6.9” have turned in strong performances, while the “7.0-9.9” odds group, though producing no winner, has notched a Top 3 ratio of 40.0%. Again, 15 horses with odds multiples of 10 or more have finished in the Top 3 – three winners, four runners-up and eight 3rd place finishers – suggesting a need to watch for dark horses. [Table 1]

Look at performances by favoritism last time out
Comparing aggregate performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their favoritism in the previous race, the best records in this race belong to fillies backed as “1st favorite” or “2nd favorite” last time out. But although 21 horses backed as “3rd favorite” in their previous outing have entered the Oka Sho, their results are poor, with no wins and only one finish each in 2nd and 3rd place. [Table 2]

A conspicuous trend in performances by previous race
Viewing aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, the majority of strong performers in the Oka Sho had most recently appeared in the “Tulip Sho.” This year, too, we need to look for fillies coming straight from the Tulip Sho, contested over the same distance and on the same course as the Oka Sho. Conversely, the only runner to win this race after appearing in the “Hochi Hai Fillies’ Revue” was Reginetta in 2008. And no winner of this race had most recently appeared in either of the “Daily Hai Queen Cup” or “Flower Cup” held in Kanto, although four runners from these races have finished 2nd. [Table 3]

More pointers in performances by career starts
Turning next to performances of runners over the last 10 years by total career starts, the majority of Top 3 finishers in the Oka Sho had previously contested between three and six races. Some caution is required here, however, as fillies with three or four career starts have achieved Top 3 ratios in excess of 35%, whereas those with five or six starts have much poorer success ratios (despite including twelve Top 3 finishes). What is beyond doubt is that runners with seven or more career starts tend to struggle; all except 2008 runner-up F T Maia (eight starts) have been beaten to 4th or lower. [Table 4]

Experience of losing as 1st favorite seems important
In the Oka Sho over the last 10 years, runners with previous experience of “finishing 2nd or lower as the 1st favorite” have nearly always finished in the Top 2. The only exception was in 2011, when 3rd-placed Trend Hunter had been backed as 1st favorite but finished 2nd in her newcomer race four starts back. Since 2013, horses fitting this bill in other than newcomer or maiden race have always finished in the Top 2. It may be an idea to bear this in mind while checking the runners’ past performances. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Look for runners with Top 3 finishes in mixed graded races
The last three winners of the Oka Sho had previously achieved Top 3 finishes in graded races open to both fillies and colts. Given the promise of another high-level contest this year, it would be advisable to look for this experience of performing strongly against colts. Last year, there were three entrants fitting this description; Jeweler, the most strongly backed at 3rd favorite, won the race (the other two were the 9th favorite and the 10th favorite). [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)