Copa Republica Argentina (G2) - Data Analysis

Handicap graded race carrying hopes for the autumn's big distance races
Looking back at the winners of this race over the last 10 years, four have gone on to win G1 races – Admire Jupiter in 2007 (Tenno Sho (Spring)), Screen Hero in 2008 (Japan Cup), Tosen Jordan in 2010 (Tenno Sho (Autumn)) and Gold Actor in 2015 (Arima Kinen). As such, the Copa Republica Argentina holds promise as the cradle of star horses with prospects not only for that year’s Japan Cup and Arima Kinen, but also as bearers of middle- to long-distance racing in coming years. Let’s now take a closer look at this race from results over the last 10 years.

Check the distance last time out
Looking at aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years by the distance of their previous race, 28 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had most recently contested a “Turf 2,000-2,400m” race. In particular, those in the “Turf 2,200m” category have the best success ratios. By contrast, no horse last seen racing on “Turf 1,800m or less” has finished in the Top 3, while those in the “Turf 2,500m or more” group have only managed one runner-up spot and one 3rd-place finish between them, along with a Top 3 ratio of only 5.4%. [Table 1]

Strong showing from horses backed as 1st or 2nd favorite in recent races
If we organize performances of runners over the last 10 years by their highest favoritism in the previous four races, those in the “1st favorite” group lead the way with a Top 3 ratio of 37.9%, followed by the “2nd favorite” group with 23.8%. In fact, 19 of the 20 Top 2 finishers had experience of being backed as 1st or 2nd favorite. Conversely, only three horses with a highest favoritism of “3rd favorite or lower” have finished in the Top 3, and there is a big gap between these and the “1st or 2nd favorite” groups in terms of success ratios as well. [Table 2]

Finish in recent handicap races should be checked
Turning next to performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their finish in the most recent handicap race in their last four outings, horses finishing “2nd” in such a race have the best Top 3 ratio. They are followed by horses finishing “1st” and those with “No handicap race in the last 4 outings,” while horses beaten to “3rd or lower” in the most recent handicap race in their last four outings have tended to struggle. It may be a good idea to check the runners’ finish in their most recent handicap race. [Table 3]

Seek out the winner!
Top 4 finish in recent graded races is key
All nine winning horses since 2008 had a highest finish of 4th or above in a graded race within their previous four outings. When looking for potential winners, we should keep a close eye on the runners’ record in graded races within their last four outings. [Table 4]

(Michio Kawano)