NHK Mile Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Mile champion decider for 3-year-olds
In the last 10 years, nine runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have finished in the Top 3, including 2009 winner Jo Cappuccino (10th favorite) and 2013 winner Meiner Ho O (10th favorite). In addition, we note that 2008 winner Deep Sky secured another victory in its next outing (Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)), while 2011 third-place finisher Real Impact dominated its next race (Yasuda Kinen). In other words, we should also take note of future trends for runners in this race. Let’s now look at some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Check finish in most recent turf race at Tokyo Racecourse
Of the 180 runners that contested the NHK Mile Cup in the last 10 years, 107 had previously ran in a turf race at Tokyo Racecourse. If we look at performances of those 107 runners in terms of finish in their most recent turf race at Tokyo Racecourse, we note that “winners” and “runner-up” in that race achieved high Top 2 and Top 3 ratios. However, 10 runners “without experience in turf races at Tokyo Racecourse” also finished in the Top 3, suggesting we cannot overlook runners that lack such experience. However, since the Top 3 ratio for runners without experience in turf races at Tokyo was only 13.7%, we should pay more attention to runners that finished in the Top 2 in their most recent turf race at the Tokyo venue. [Table 1]

Look for highest favoritism in 1,600m open-class turf race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of highest favoritism in a 1,600m open-class turf race, we find that “1st favorites” produced six winners and “third favorites” two winners. Runners that “had not previously contested a 1,600m open-class turf race” produced only one winner, but five runners-up, and three third-place finishes, delivering the second highest Top 2 ratio and the third highest Top 3 ratio. In other words, it may be interesting to check not only runners that have previously entered a 1,600m open-class turf race with a high favoritism, but also runners that have not contested in such a race. [Table 2]

Check position at the 4th corner in most recent non-G1 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of position when passing the 4th corner in their most recent non-G1 race, we find that the few runners in “front” produced three winners and achieved the highest success ratios. In addition, higher positions when passing the 4th corner have typically resulted in a higher Top 2 ratio. [Table 3]

Runners that have triumphed in most recent non-G1 1,600m turf race dominate
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in their most recent non-G1 1,600m turf race, we note that 151 of the 180 total runners had recently contested a non-G1 1,600m turf race, and “winners” in that race achieved high success ratios such as a Top 2 ratio over 20%. [Table 4]

Looking at runners that finished 2nd or lower in their most recent non-G1 1,600m turf race in terms of the time difference with winners in those races, we find that 14 of the 15 Top 3 finishers in the NHK Mile Cup finished the non-G1 1,600m turf race in question “0.5s or less” behind the respective winners. For runners that finished “2nd or lower” in their most recent non-G1 1,600m turf race, we should also take into account the time difference with the winners in that race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Check races entered after the turn of the year and corresponding jockeys
Looking at the last six winners since 2012 in terms of races entered after the turn of the year and the jockeys in those races, we find that all six winners entered at least two races after the turn of the year with the same jockey for each race. In addition, these runners also contested the NHK Mile Cup with the same jockey. Accordingly, it may be interesting to check the number of races entered after the turn of the year and corresponding jockeys to see if this trend continues this year. [Table 6]

(Michio Kawano)