Japan Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Champion decider bringing together elite Japanese & foreign runners
Of the 37 Japan Cup winners to date, a total of 33 were horses that had experience finishing in the Top 2 of a G1 race held in Japan or overseas (the exceptions being Half Iced in 1982, Jupiter Island in 1986, Marvelous Crown in 1994, and Screen Hero in 2008). The Japan Cup is a world-renowned race typically won by runners that have already vied for top positions in major domestic or overseas races. Foreign and Japanese horses respectively won 12 and 5 of the Japan Cup races from 1981 (launch year) to 1997, but since 1998 to 2017, 18 Japanese runners have won the race, while only two from abroad have claimed the title. In other words, Japanese horses have enjoyed notably greater success in recent years. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on runners that have enjoyed success in G1 races held at Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 (excluding 2008 winner Screen Hero) had experience finishing in the Top 4 of a “G1 race held at the Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse.” In addition, runners that had triumphed in a “G1 race held at the Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse” achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 39.6%. When looking at the track record of this year’s runners, we should check their performances in a major race held at Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse. [Table 1]

Track record from April of same year also important
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 (excluding 2013 third-place finisher Tosen Jordan) had experience finishing in the Top 4 of “a JRA G1 or G2 race held from April of the same year.” In other words, we should expect little from runners without recent successes and those that mainly competed in races other than JRA G1 and G2 races. [Table 2]

Runners aged 6 and above struggle
All 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years were “horses aged 5 or less.” Meanwhile, “horses aged 6 or above” achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 4.3%. We should therefore lower our expectations of horses aged 6 and above. [Table 3]

In addition, all 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years had “25 career starts or less.” This means that, in addition to horses aged 6 and above, horses with longer careers are unlikely to chase the top places. [Table 4]

Zero Top 3 finishes for foreign horses in last 11 years
All 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years have been Japanese horses. The last foreign horse to finish in the Top 3 was Ouija Board (third place in 2006). In other words, our primary focus should again be on Japanese horses this year. [Table 5]

Foreign-affiliated jockeys perform well
Looking at performances of Japanese runners over the last 10 years in terms of jockey country affiliation, we observe that horses ridden by foreign-affiliated jockeys achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 36.7%. While foreign horses struggled, we should raise our expectations of Japanese horses ridden by foreign-affiliated jockeys. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Check conditions for previous race
The last nine winners of the Japan Cup all (1) had finished in the Top 2 of “a G1 race held at the Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse,” (2) had finished in the Top 3 of “a G1 or G2 race held from April of the same year,” (3) were horses aged 5 or less, (4) had 24 career starts or less, and (5) were Japanese horses. Any runner that clears all of the conditions outlined in Tables 1-5 above must therefore be regarded as a leading contender. Other features shared by the nine recent winners were that they had contested a JRA race in their previous race, that they had finished in the Top 6 of their previous race, that they had been backed as 5th favorite or higher in their previous race, and that they were ranked “6th or higher” in the estimated time over the final three furlongs in their previous race. In other words, we should carefully check performances in the previous race. [Table 7]

(Masaya Ibuki)