Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Legendary race that closes out the spring season
This year, the Takarazuka Kinen will be held at Kyoto Racecourse for the first time in 18 years—since 2006, when Deep Impact secured the victory. Recent winners of the race have included Equinox, who was voted the 2023 Longines World’s Best Racehorse, and other big names such as Lys Gracieux, Chrono Genesis, and Titleholder. Which runner will join the ranks of these champions this year? Let’s now analyze some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Keep an eye on dark horses
The last five winners were all backed as 3rd favorite or higher. However, Through Seven Seas finished 2nd while backed as 10th favorite last year, while Mozu Bello finished 3rd while backed as 12th favorite in 2020, with both turning in strong performance. In addition, the runners-up and third-place finishers in 2015 and 2018 were all backed as 10th favorite or lower. In other words, we should keep in mind there is ample room for dark horses to chase the top places. [Table 1]

Strong performance by fillies and mares
Lys Gracieux, who won the race in 2019, and Chrono Genesis, who secured consecutive victories in the race in 2020 and 2021, were both mares. Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of gender, we find that fillies and mares have outperformed colts, horses, and geldings in terms of success ratios. Poorly favored fillies and mares have also enjoyed success, with examples including 2016 winner Marialite (8th favorite), as well as 2023 runner-up Through Seven Seas and 2015 runner-up Denim and Ruby (both 10th favorite). We should therefore closely watch fillies and mares regardless of their favoritism. [Table 2]

Over half of the Top 3 finishers have come from a G1 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that 23 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a domestic or overseas G1 race in their previous race. Among this group, 2014 winner Gold Ship and 2017 winner Satono Crown had rebounded from a 6th or lower finish in their previous race. Only one runner that had been beaten to 10th or lower in her previous race performed well in the race: Denim and Ruby. Therefore, among runners coming from a G1 race, we should not be overly concerned about the finish in the previous race, unless they have been beaten to 10th or lower in that race. [Table 3]

Furthermore, runners coming from a race other than a domestic or overseas G1 race have generally underperformed, but those that had finished in the Top 2 of their previous race achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 31.3%. In addition, we should not overlook the fact that all seven Top 3 finishers in this group were backed as 6th favorite or lower in the race. [Table 4]

Focus on G1 winners
The runners that enter the Takarazuka Kinen are selected through fan voting. It is therefore no surprise that 19 of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years had won a previous JRA G1 race. Runners that had not won a previous G1 or G2 race, including such a race held overseas, delivered performance of [0-2-1-39], with zero winners and a Top 3 ratio of 7.1%. In other words, a strong performance in the Takarazuka Kinen, which brings together elite runners in the culmination of the spring season, requires a matching track record. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Watch age and record in terms of distance
The last 10 winners were all four or five years old, so we should first narrow down our selection based on age. Another shared feature among nine of the 10 winners was that they had won a 2,200m or 2,500m graded turf race. We should therefore regard four-year-olds and five-year-olds with experience of winning a 2,200m or 2,500m graded turf race as leading contenders. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)