Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

G1 race for two-year-olds that has served as a springboard for many celebrated runners
The Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes is champion race for two-year-olds with historical significance. Many of the winners of this race have subsequently enjoyed success in classic races or G1 races for older horses, with 2021 winner Do Deuce being a prime example. While typically held as a 1,600m turf race at Hanshin Racecourse, this year’s race will be held as a 1,600m turf race at Kyoto Racecourse. Let’s now look at some trends in this race based on data for the last 10 years.

Race favorites have delivered consistent performance
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that runners backed as 1st favorite achieved high Win and Top 3 ratios of 50.0% and 90.0%, respectively. Runners backed as 2nd favorite similarly achieved a strong Top 2 ratio of 50.0%, and only once in the past 10 years have the first and second favorites together are beaten to 3rd or lower. It would therefore be prudent to focus on runners backed as either 1st favorite or 2nd favorite. [Table 1]

Runners coming from a newcomer race should not be overlooked
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, there are no major trends that appear to favor particular groups, but we note that runners coming from a victory in a newcomer or maiden race have also finished in the Top 3. In particular, runners that had contested a newcomer race last time out achieved a Top 3 ratio of 50.0%, and should therefore not be overlooked. The bulk of the runners came from a G2 race, but runners in this group only achieved a low Win ratio of 3.4%. Meanwhile, runners coming from a G3 race outperformed those coming from a G2 race in terms of success ratios. Among runners coming from a G3 race, those that had contested the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup last time out delivered excellent performance of [3-2-1-4] (Top 3 ratio of 60.0%). [Table 2]

Focus on Yuga Kawada as jockey
Over the last 10 years, five currently active jockeys have won the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes. These have all been top-tier jockeys with a proven track record. Among them, Yuga Kawada stands out because he has finished in the Top 2 of four of the five Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes he has entered since 2017. It will also be interesting to see which horse will be ridden by Ryan Moore, who is currently in Japan working under a short-term JRA jockey’s license. [Table 3]

Strong performance by horses born early in the year
It is often said that horses born early in the year have an edge in races for two-year-olds. This trend also appears to apply to the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, with runners born in January and February achieving Top 3 ratios of 40.0% and 29.3%, respectively, while those born in April and May had Top 3 ratios below 10%. When in doubt, therefore, it is worth checking the month of birth of the runners. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Consecutive wins by runners coming from a previous victory
Runners that had triumphed in their previous race have won all 16 races since 2008. In addition, all winners since 2013 had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race. When checking runners’ previous race, we should look for win contenders from among runners that have finished 1st in their previous race and were backed as 2nd favorite or higher in that race. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)