Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Sprint champion decider of the spring season, which has delivered upsets in the past
The Takamatsunomiya Kinen ended in upsets in 2019 and 2022, producing substantial Trifecta payouts of 4,497,470 yen and 2,784,560 yen, respectively. This year will mark the 30th running of the race as the sprint champion decider of the spring season, and the question on everyone’s mind is how it will unfold. Let’s now analyze some key features in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Broad range of Top 3 finishers, from highly favored runners to those backed as 10th favorite or higher
The last race favorite to triumph in the race was Big Arthur in 2016, which feels like a while back. Race favorites have also produced only one runner-up and one third-place finisher since. The sluggish performance by race favorites has been a key factor behind the trend of upsets in recent years. However, runners backed as 2nd favorite have finished in the Top 2 seven times in the last 10 years, and runners backed as 3rd favorite in the Top 3 five times, so it is certainly not that case that all runners backed by high favoritism have performed poorly. Incidentally, the only time runners backed as 1st-3rd favorite were all beaten to 4th or lower was in 2022. [Table 1]

Veterans should not be overlooked even if they are poorly favored
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that horses of various ages have found success, with horses aged 4-7 all producing winners. While horses aged 7 or above have not achieved an impressive Top 3 ratio, First Force won the 2023 race while backed as 12th favorite, Travesura finished 3rd in the same race while backed as 13th favorite, and Kir Lord similarly placed 3rd in the 2022 race while backed as 17th favorite. In other words, poorly favored runners have often performed well in the race. It may therefore be worth considering runners that present attractive odds. [Table 2]

Distinct trend in performance by gender
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of gender, we note that there were no major differences in terms of Top 3 ratio. However, mares have finished as runner-up seven times but only notched the victory once (Mozu Superflare in 2020), suggesting they often fall short of a win. In the four consecutive years since 2021, horses/geldings have consistently occupied 1st and 3rd place, with mares finishing in 2nd place, so it may be interesting to consider gender when making your selection. [Table 3]

Runners stepping up from a G3 race are the leading group, but keep an eye on runners back from a G1 race overseas
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we observe that runners back from an overseas G1 race achieved the highest Top 3 ratio. Moreover, the five Top 3 finishers in this group had all previously contested a 1,200m turf race at Sha Tin Racecourse in Hong Kong. Last year’s winner Mad Cool came from an 8th-place finish in the Hong Kong Sprint, while 2017 3rd-place finisher Red Falx came from a 12th-place finish in the same race. This suggests we should keep horses in this group on our radar, regardless of their finish in the previous race. [Table 4]

In addition, runners stepping up from a G3 race produced the highest number of Top 3 finishers. Within this group, those coming from the Silk Road Stakes delivered a notable five wins and two runners-up. The six runners each coming from Hankyu Hai and Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes also delivered Top 3 finishers. However, of the 22 Top 3 finishers among runners coming from a G3 race, 19 had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race. We should therefore take into account the previous finish when considering runners coming from G3 races. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Runners with a solid track record on the same course or in spring races fare well
Five of the six winners since 2019 had finished in the Top 3 of a graded race held at Chukyo Racecourse since the previous year, with 2020 winner Mozu Superflare being the exception. However, Mozu Superflare had finished 2nd in the year-earlier Sprinters Stakes, a result also matched by 2021 winner Danon Smash and 2024 winner Mad Cool. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, we should keep an eye on runners that have performed well in a graded turf race held at the Chukyo Racecourse or in a sprint G1 race since the previous year. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)