2015 News

November 06, 2015


Data Analysis for the "2015 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1)"

Strong and beautiful fillies line up to decide the autumn queen title

The Queen Elizabeth II Cup is the autumn’s biggest race to decide the top fillies and mares – a matchup between the 3-year-olds coming from the Fillies Triple Crown and 4-year-olds and up challenging from a number of step races. Over the last 10 years, 3-year-olds have been in the van with five wins, compared to three for 4-year-olds and two for 5-year-olds. Let’s look at some trends in this race to see if we can predict successful runners from results over the last 10 years.

Check the runners’ favoritism in the previous race

First, let’s look at aggregate performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their favoritism to win in their most recent race (except when it was overseas). Fillies backed as “4th favorite” last time out have the best win ratio in this race, followed by those with “6th-9th favorite” tags. Excluding UK-trained Snow Fairy (winner in 2010 and 2011, coming straight from overseas races), six of the other eight winners had been 4th favorite or lower in their previous race. Runners backed as “1st favorite” last time out have achieved four 2nd and six 3rd place finishes but no winners in this race. When looking for winners, it seems a good idea to check the runners’ favoritism in their previous race. [Table 1]

[Table 1] Performance by favoritism to win in the previous race (last 10 years)
Favoritism to win previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st favorite 0-4-6-16 0% 15.4% 38.5%
2nd favorite 1-3-0-14 5.6% 22.2% 22.2%
3rd favorite 1-0-1-16 5.6% 5.6% 11.1%
4th favorite 2-2-2-12 11.1% 22.2% 33.3%
5th favorite 0-0-0-15 0% 0% 0%
6th-9th favorite 3-1-0-33 8.1% 10.8% 10.8%
10th favorite or lower 1-0-1-26 3.6% 3.6% 7.1%
*Except when the previous race was overseas.

Look for experience in fillies graded races since the summer season

Turning to performances by experience of competing in that year’s Queen Stakes, Fuchu Himba Stakes or Shuka Sho, runners in the “Shuka Sho only” and “None entered” groups have fared comparatively well over the last 10 years. It may come as a surprise that fillies and mares aged 4 and up that did not run in the Queen Stakes (part of the summer Hokkaido series) or the Fuchu Himba Stakes (the principal prep race for this race) have performed better than their counterparts. [Table 2]

[Table 2] Performance by experience of competing in that year’s Queen Stakes, Fuchu Himba Stakes or Shuka Sho (last 10 years)
Experience Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Shuka Sho only 4-2-2-28 11.1% 16.7% 22.2%
Queen Stakes only 0-1-0-9 0% 10.0% 10.0%
Fuchu Himba Stakes only 0-2-4-40 0% 4.3% 13.0%
Two of the above three 1-1-1-23 3.8% 7.7% 11.5%
None entered 5-4-3-39 9.8% 17.6% 23.5%

Take a good look at the recent track record

Next, let’s check the runners’ records in the most recently contested turf 2,000-2,200m race within the last 3 outings – or, if beaten to 2nd or lower, the time difference behind the winner. Over the last 10 years, the better performers in this race have been those finishing “1st in the race in question” and those trailing the winner by “0.3 seconds or less.” By contrast, those finishing “0.4-0.5 seconds” or “0.6 seconds or more” behind the winning horse have only produced one runner-up in the past 10 years. It may pay to scrutinize the runners’ showings in their most recently contested turf 2,000-2,200m race. [Table 3]

[Table 3] Performance by time difference behind the winner in the most recently contested turf 2,000-2,200m race within the last 3 outings (last 10 years)
Time difference Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
0.3 secs or less 5-4-2-29 12.5% 22.5% 27.5%
0.4-0.5 secs 0-1-1-15 0% 5.9% 11.8%
0.6 secs or more 0-0-2-49 0% 0% 3.9%
1st in the race in question 3-3-3-22 9.7% 19.4% 29.0%
No such race entered 2-2-2-24 6.7% 13.3% 20.0%
*Including overseas races

Check recent finishes in mixed races

Now, let’s look at this race’s runners from the past 10 years and their performances in mixed races (colts and horses) within their last four outings. Those that came in “1st” or “2nd-4th” have produced the best success ratios in this race. Clearly, we should not easily dismiss any runner that has recently competed in mixed races with colts and horses and achieved a high placing. But the “No such race entered” group has produced 4 winners, all of which were 3-year-olds – another thing to bear in mind. [Table 4]

[Table 4] Performance by highest finish in mixed races within the last four outings (last 10 years)
Highest finish Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st 3-6-2-29 7.5% 22.5% 27.5%
2nd-4th 3-1-5-19 10.7% 14.3% 32.1%
5th or lower 0-0-0-33 0% 0% 0%
No such race entered 4-3-3-58 5.9% 10.3% 14.7%
* Including overseas races

Seek out the winner!
Look for runners with a higher finish than favoritism in the previous race

Of the seven winners since 2006 (excluding UK-trained Snow Fairy, which won the race back-to-back in 2010 and 2011), six had finished higher than their favoritism in their previous outings and one had finished in the same position as her favoritism. When looking for potential winners, it might be worth checking for runners with this kind of record in their previous contest. [Table 5]

[Table 5] Comparison of winners’ favoritism and finish in their previous race (since 2006)
Year Winning horse Favoritism and finish in last race
2006 Fusaichi Pandora 4th favorite 3rd
2007 Daiwa Scarlet 2nd favorite 1st
2008 Little Amapola 6th favorite 6th
2009 Queen Spumante 11th favorite 9th
2012 Rainbow Dahlia 9th favorite 4th
2013 Meisho Mambo 3rd favorite 1st
2014 Lachesis 7th favorite 2nd
*Excluding 2010 and 2011 winner Snow Fairy, which had most recently contested overseas races.


(Data analysis by Michio Kawano)

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