Data Analysis for the 2016 Victoria Mile

The major target race in the spring for 4-and-up fillies and mares
The first three runners past the post in last year’s Victoria Mile were the 5th, 12th and 18th favorite, in that order, producing a Trifecta payoff in excess of 20 million yen. That was the third straight year in which both winner and runner-up were ranked in double digits for favoritism, suggesting that we should be on the lookout for dark horses this year as well. Now let’s now check some data from the past to gain a grasp of general trends as we approach this race.

4- and 5-year-olds dominate
Looking first at aggregate performances by age over the last 10 years, we find that 26 of the 30 Top 3 finishers in that time were either 4 or 5 years old. And although last year’s winner and runner-up were both 6-year-olds, no other runners aged 6 and up have finished in the Top 2 over the last 10 years. [Table 1]

Trends in performance by win odds
Turning next to performances by win odds over the last 10 years, all three runners supported by solid odds of “1.9 or lower” have secured a Top 2 finish, but three of the four backed by odds of “2.0-2.9” have been beaten to 4th or lower. On the other hand, two of three runners backed by odds of “3.0-3.9” have won the race, showing a polarization in performances by highly favored horses. Another notable feature is the gulf in performance between runners with odds of “10.0-14.9” and “15.0-19.9,” respectively. Again, five of the last 10 runners-up have been backed by odds of “30.0-49.9.” It might be a good idea to bear these trends in mind. [Table 2]

Also check performances in the previous race
Runners most recently seen in overseas G1 races (all in Dubai) have performed successfully in the Victoria Mile over the last 10 years. Besides these, runners coming straight from the Hanshin Himba Stakes or mixed G2 races have also performed favorably. As for G3 races, of the main trials, horses last seen in the Nakayama Himba Stakes have produced passable performances, but those coming from the Fukushima Himba Stakes have tended to struggle. [Table 3]

Look for horses with success in graded races limited to fillies and mares
If we check the track record of Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years, we find that horses with a “Top 2 finish in a graded race limited to fillies and mares within the last four outings” have finished in the Top 2 here every year. It should be interesting to see if this trend continues this year as well. [Table 4]

Horses suffering big defeats despite high favoritism also worth a look
Over the last 10 years, runners that come to the Victoria Mile with a record of “being beaten to 10th-13th despite Top 4 favoritism within their last five races” have also finished in the Top 2 here every year except 2009 and 2011. This kind of horse often forms a blind spot in favoritism, so it could be seen as a favorable omen if expectations of a horse have fallen due to a heavy defeat. Perhaps we should focus more on their high favoritism in the race concerned, rather than their lowly finish. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Check the horse number in the last two outings
In the Victoria Mile over the last 6 years, horses that were “in the outermost bracket or second from the outermost bracket within the last two races” are on a run of six straight wins. It seems worth checking the bracket numbers in the last two races to see if any of this year’s runners fit this bill. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)